Future Value of Fender Custom Shop Guitars and Their Boutique Knock Offs

[applescruffs]

Tell me about the future value of Fender Custom Shop Guitars and their Boutique knock offs.

I am just wondering if my fender custom shop guitars will hold their value or appreciate like the vintage guitars have. 50 years from now what will these standard custom shop guitars value be?

Then I wonder you have these companies like GVCG,Revelator,Nash,Kline.

Will these guitars be worth anything? Hell will they even be worth what they cost new? 50 years from now will these guitars be worth nothing?

[kingsleyd]

Tell me about the future value of Fender Custom Shop Guitars and their Boutique knock offs.

I am just wondering if my fender custom shop guitars will hold their value or appreciate like the vintage guitars have. 50 years from now what will these standard custom shop guitars value be?

Then I wonder you have these companies like GVCG,Revelator,Nash,Kline.

Will these guitars be worth anything? Hell will they even be worth what they cost new? 50 years from now will these guitars be worth nothing?

Welcome to TGP. As to your queries, you might as well consult with a fortune teller or Revelations as ask anyone here. NOBODY KNOWS!!! And our opinions on this subject are uniformly worthless.

Here's my question for you: What makes you think you'll be around 5 years from now, let alone 50?

And here's my $0.02: Enjoy 'em now. That's the only thing that counts.

[Joe_Steeler]

That is the $1,000,000 question.
My guess is that the Fender CS pieces will gain marginal value as years go on. The production volumes are too great to justify a scarcity of guitars. Some of the limited editions will fare a bit better and certain Masterbuilt instruments (by the most well known and regarded builders) will gain a few points better than the normal CS fare.
The Masterbuilt pieces are starting to be doubted, for the whole uniqueness, as it is abvious that it is vitrually impossible for a man to build the quantity of instruments produced each year bearing their "name".
Some people on other fourms have questioned that fact and there is nothing but silence from Fender on the issue.
My Momma once told me, "The one who does not respond, concedes...".

The Boutique knock offs... well we will know soon about the Andersons won't we? I bring TA name first because on my opinion nobody makes a better "knock-ff" Strat.
Suhr is just a solid product and one that will gain strength in the years to come.
Grosh, never been a huge fan of them but do recognize their stand.

At the end, brand recognition i.e. Fender will gain and maintain most of their value because that is what the populus recognizes.

[phoenix 7]

If I bond with a guitar -- whether it's a Gibson, Fender or a boutique one -- well enough that I have it a few decades from now, what it's monetary value will be is the last thing I'm concerned about. But to me they're instruments, not investments. If I love the guitar that much, I probably won't want to sell it. Like someone said above -- play and enjoy them now and don't worry about it. I think that's good advice.

[HankSnowSki]

I think the quality, high-end, small production builders will continue to be collectible. A good guitar is a good guitar.
Some of the others may end up being the Deloreons of the guitar world: a bit too weird and not rare enough to be worth much.
Of course, all of this assumes that in 50 years we'll still want to play guitars! Won't our robot-slave's built-in synths be able to do this work for us? :)
I view the Masterbuilts the same way I view artist models... a gimmick to sell guitars in the short term, but not the long term. I don't think anyone who wants a vintage Gibson Nick Lucas guitar buys one because Lucas had a hit with Tiptoe Through the Tulips, they just want a great sounding axe, name or no name. The Masterbuilts are great guitars but no one is doing anything innovative enough with them to really stand out. These master builders aren't Lloyd Loars or Leo Fenders redefining guitars as we know them, they're just guitar building veterans making very nice repros of vintage models.

[Nolatone Ampworks]

I think any fine guitar that remains "relevant" in the market place will increase in value over the course of 50 years.

I SERIOUSLY doubt the Fender CS stuff being built today will increase in value by any ratio near the originals. Too many being built, and of the ones being built, too few being played!

The reason a '54 Strat is worth so much is they made only a few hundred a year those first years (I'm sure someone can quote production numbers). But, that was before the era of sofa players with bedroom amps, or sound proof home studio.

In other words, MOST folks who bought a guitar like that back then played the crap out of them. Then as music evolved over the next 2-3 decades, I'm sure many were butchered/modified, swapped out, whatever. Net result, the typical first 50 years of life of an early Fender was MUCH tougher than the typical life of the first 50 years of a late model custom shop guitar.

Smaller production & larger attrition = greater value increase (in one that's still intact!)

[michael.e]

I figure that if I purchased a $2,700.00 CS Relic for $1,500.00 used about a year after it was purchased new, CS guitars are not going to be great investment endeavors.

I think that few botique builders will fare better. I see very few botiques command the prices that they were sold for as new.

M.E.

[surfshack]

What about Detemple's?

[ssdeluxe]

interesting topic !.........I would have to agree that the fender custom shop and boutique knock offs would probably be marginally worth more in the future than now.......but I also agree .....opinions might prove worthless indeed.......

what I agree with whole heartedly with is, that a great guitar will always be a great guitar and ,will always be worth more as time passes, because people who put value to a "great" player are willing to pay more for that "great" player because to them its a superior instrument.

I also think that some of the boutique stuff will hit a "magic" spot where some of them may reach high values due to the interest from collecting......

again, I like to play them and enjoy them....so who cares what I think !!!

[jezzzz2003]

Inflation, think inflation my funny little guitar feiends.

[musicofanatic5]

I read somewhere George Gruhn said anyone buying one of these re-issues with a mind toward investment is seriously misguided. Then again, it seems we have achieved a high enough population of idiots in the world, that unwarrented demands are created for stuff that is actually just stuff (want proof? ebay).

[Joe_Steeler]

The reason a '54 Strat is worth so much is they made only a few hundred a year those first years (I'm sure someone can quote production numbers). But, that was before the era of sofa players with bedroom amps, or sound proof home studio.


Yes!! I have been saying that all along. Couple that thought with a glut of cash ladden baby boomers and ding!! you have ungodly sums of money thrown around. This only creates a false sense of worth for todays CS Strats that just will not be there 50 years from now.

Buy because you love to play and love play good stuff. Nobody is questioning the quality. Don't buy thinking you are buying gold billets for future investment.
I find an interesting parallel to the sports memorabilia market.

[Relicula]

Well here's a bit of reality, not future prediction's. I bought two Cunetto relics, one for 1350, and the other for 1400, I sold them for 3000, and 3200. Both made in 97, and sold in 05.;)

[Jon C]

simple answer... only time will tell.

[Dave Orban]

If I bond with a guitar -- whether it's a Gibson, Fender or a boutique one -- well enough that I have it a few decades from now, what it's monetary value will be is the last thing I'm concerned about. But to me they're instruments, not investments. If I love the guitar that much, I probably won't want to sell it. Like someone said above -- play and enjoy them now and don't worry about it. I think that's good advice.
Plus 1000...!!!

[TwinandTwang]

Depends on demand and supply.
It won't be like the current vintage market that's for sure.

[Luke]

People pay extra for CS pieces because they want the assurance of the best possible build quality, and the ability to customize their instrument within the allowable constraints. In the future, guitar quality will continue to increase as it has over the past decade, where paying a premium for quality will become a non-issue. As more functions of guitar building are computerized, the labor cost (the most significant cost in current instrument manufacturing) will continue to drop. Between CNC, Plek and robotic pick winders we are nearing a stage where within 20 years guitars will not require people at all to be produced, then end product will be consistent like a row of toasters coming off the assembly line. Some will complain the new guitars lack soul and were mass produced, but by and large the GC buying crowd will be happy at the quality available at every price point, and since the the vast volume of the market occurs at sub-$1000 presently, that is the where the volume occurs. So to answer the question, being hand made will be worth something to a few people, but the vast quantity of CS guitars being built today will be worth next to nothing in the coming decades.

[BigSlick]

Interesting topic....I wish I knew what would be valuable in the future so I could a bunch of them now....lol

Personally I don't buy guitars as investments although I do have several that I feel will be worth more and more as the years go by... Of course when I do buy guitars I have to justify the purchase to my wife so in that case they are ALL investments...he he

Regarding fender custom shop guitars, I don't think that they will increase in value (marginaly gains at best). There's just to many out there and they keep coming out with more and more "custom shop" models. To the point where eventually every guitar they make will be touted as "custom shop".

That said, the cunetto relics are an exception as they were only produced for a few years so my prediction is they will continue to go up and up. Also, there has been much speculation regarding custom shop one-off's and their future value....who knows or cares...

You can't take them with you so play the heck out of them!!!!!

[enharmonic]

It's hard to say. I had a Masterbuilt Tele Jr that IMO was sonically inferior to a couple of other Tele Jr's I had at the time, and it sold for $400 more than either of my other two Tele Jr's. Put all 3 of them in a room together, and the Masterbuilt would become little more than a great conversation piece...but in the world of the collector market, it had the right pedigree...even if the other Tele Jr's ran it out of the room.

It's all in market perception.

[tonedaddy]

I read somewhere George Gruhn said anyone buying one of these re-issues with a mind toward investment is seriously misguided.

And one reason Gruhn says he believes this is because:

The lifespan of a well-made electric guitar is in the hundreds of years.
At some point, the cumulative number of guitars that will exist will be astounding, requiring successive generations to own not only the "vintage" guitars of previous years plus current output.

Current TGP'ers are doing as much as possible to bear their share of that burden (what do you think is the average number of guitars owned by folks on this and other guitar forums? What is the maximum number you think they'll ever want or can afford to own?)
;)

But what will be the number of guitars future generations will want to own?

From my perspective, one saving grace possible in that scenario would be the introduction of expanding generations of new foreign buyers, e.g. China. Yes, the finances of potential buyers in foreign countries will continue to grow, but by how much and will they be interested in buying these kinds of instruments?

[applescruffs]

I dont buy to collect. but I do want to buy quality and I want to buy something that speaks to me. I have been playing a ton of guitars and want to find a handful that really bond with me. However, resale and future value is a concern when I am debating getting a fender knock off from nash versus the fender custom shop. If I had two equal guitars from each and they both fit me and played great I would want to keep the one that over the long haul wont be a dog. I am just curious if these all parts, etc. put together guitars will ever have value like the custom shop fenders. I dont like the stock fender guitars because of the thick poly. otherwise I would just buy a regular fender. Its not snobbery I just want to give my grandkids a piece that isnt worthless.

[Catfish]

And one reason Gruhn says he believes this is because:

The lifespan of a well-made electric guitar is in the hundreds of years.
At some point, the cumulative number of guitars that will exist will be astounding, requiring successive generations to own not only the "vintage" guitars of previous years plus current output.

Current TGP'ers are doing as much as possible to bear their share of that burden (what do you think is the average number of guitars owned by folks on this and other guitar forums? What is the maximum number you think they'll ever want or can afford to own?)
;)

But what will be the number of guitars future generations will want to own?

From my perspective, one saving grace possible in that scenario would be the introduction of expanding generations of new foreign buyers, e.g. China. Yes, the finances of potential buyers in foreign countries will continue to grow, but by how much and will they be interested in buying these kinds of instruments?


The likelihood that the Chinese will become the new vanguard of guitar gear is basically nil. Mao and the Communist Party basically closed the border to western music from the 1950s to the 1980s - they don't care about our collectibles, and neither do the Indians.

I could not agree more with Gruhn with regard to the supply of high-quality instruments being well on its way to overwhelming the demand. Further, the main supporters of the vintage and replica market (baby boomers) will very soon be on their way to paring possessions, not adding to them.

Where Gruhn is wrong is to tag collectible guitars as investments. They are no more investments than beanie babies, old cars, etc. Collectibles are a speculative market, nothing more. The assertion that the vintage guitars that he sells are investments is nothing more than self-serving bs. Their prices bare no resemblance to their ability to produce an income stream or their relative value to a similar quality instrument (otherwise known as replacement value). A day is coming when he and the many others who touted vintage guitars' "investment value" will be reviled, and properly so.

[sundaypunch]

I read somewhere George Gruhn said anyone buying one of these re-issues with a mind toward investment is seriously misguided.

That about sums it up.

[AJ Love]

I'd be willing to be good money that George Gruhn said the same thing about 70's Fender back in the 1980's or early 90's

We are already seeing the prices of early 80's Fenders going up.

I think the 90's Fender Custom Shop guitars will be highly valued someday. The production numbers were lower then, and the quality very high, with renowned builders such as John Page, John Suhr, Michael Stephens, Fred Stuart, Alan Hamel, JW Black, Gene Baker all working together (plus the early Cunetto relics). The John Page era was the true "Golden Age" of the Fender Custom Shop.

I also think some of the current Masterbuilt Fenders will be highly valued, too.

[LowWatt]

I've always told friends to buy used, buy smart (quality instrument by a name people know), and take good care of your instrument while playing it as much as humanly possible. At the very least, you will never lose money if you sell. Anything you do make is bonus.

Supply and demand has changed and the past is not a barometer for the future. As with any art, an original will always hold serious value to a collector, but a copy will always be a copy.

[urizen]

Buy it because you like it so much you need it, play it like you must because you wanted it so much you can't keep from picking it up (and it's always hard to put down), treat it like you know you could never bear to sell it (remembering how sorry you ALWAYS were whenever you made THAT mistake before), and sell it ONLY when you're absolutely desperate (and never before).

'taint an investment, it's for your love of making music.

[urizen]

Unless you're one of those guys who thinks it's just a tool*.









*And that's cool too, I just never could relate to that feeling meself.

[Luke]

An investment generates both dividend income and capital appreciation. A guitar as an investment is simply speculation on potential capital appreciation.

The most likely scenario is that Fender CS stuff will stay in lock step with inflation at their current used pricing. There is no reason to believe there will be an increase on the demand side of the curve, nor a decrease on the supply side. Now if China started collecting American artifacts or Fender went out of business, the dynamics could change. It is all, speculation: maybe, could be, what if, how about.......

[ricoh]

What about Detemple's?

Used DeTemples are worth more than what I payed for mine. That could change.
I did not buy it for an investment. I wish I bought that 58 Strat at GC when it was $ 10,000.00. I thought that it was too high. That would have been an investment.............If I held onto it and sold it recently.
My CS Fender is still a used guitar and it's not going to bring me my original investment any time soon. The CS guitars that get listed for high $$$$$
here don't sell all that quickly. Like the dude said .....Play em' and enjoy em'!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Alias Archtop]

The US dollar is soon to be replaced by the Amero....so I hope ya'll factor this into your Fender Guitar investment decisions.

[AJ Love]

The most likely scenario is that Fender CS stuff will stay in lock step with inflation at their current used pricing. There is no reason to believe there will be an increase on the demand side of the curve, nor a decrease on the supply side...

Then please explain why we are seeing 80's Fenders going up in price.

[teXum]

Then please explain why we are seeing 80's Fenders going up in price.

This whole debate certainly is interesting, but it seems it at least have to entail some degree of furtune telling. I don't think a lot of people in the late '90s believed that the CS relics from that era (Cunetto) would appreciate much in value. Neither do I believe that the ones who bought the first '52 RIs from the Fullerton factory bought them for investment purposes. Regardless, they are all worth much more today. Who knows what will happen in 50 years from now?

I have a 1991 '52 RI and a '04 CS '56 relic. Do I believe these will continue to appreciate? Not really, so I'll continue to play them, and if I live to see...

In the future, guitar quality will continue to increase as it has over the past decade, where paying a premium for quality will become a non-issue.


This makes me think of the Fender Trademark debate of lately. What happens if FMIC gets exclusive rights to the Strat and Tele body shapes?

I, for one, believe this will damage the overall quality of Fender guitars, also CS guitars, since I think the increased competition over the years from boutique builders have forced Fender to improve their quality.

But that is not the main point: if builders like Suhr, Lentz, Vinetto and others are forced to drop the tele shaped guitars from their line-up, I bet the guitars already produced/sold will increase in value, and rapidly.

[Rick51]

You are seeing massive price appreciation in older guitars because purely speculative money has entered that marketplace. This is a manic market, and manic markets end badly for most of the players. The exceptions are those players who were in early enough to have already realized enough profits to withstand a major loss of value in their current holdings. Right now we have speculators selling to speculators driving prices up. Not too many people paying $25,000 for a strat to play at Moe's Cocktail Lounge five nights a week...Right? George Gruhn has a 1958 Mary Kaye strat up on his site for $137,000. George ought to know what it's worth, but WOW!


At some price level, risk will drive enough speculators out to make it hard to sell. Those that have to sell (need the cash now!) will take what they can get. Some sales like that become known and a lot more instruments hit the market, which suddenly looks more risky. Buyers observe decreasing prices, keep their money in their pockets, watch prices drop more. This is how manic markets implode.

Remember Beany Babies? Suddenly, zillions of people just had to have collections of beany babies. Secondary market prices went higher than new retail, and then took off. Double, triple retail was common, and people were paying insane prices for the rarities. Now they are almost worthless.

Back to the question at the beginning of the thread...A Custom Shop guitar is just like any other new guitar. Easy to buy, plenty to choose from. A used one will price like any other used guitar. And after it's too late, the marketplace may surface some winners and losers. Just remember, you are better off with a Custom Shop Mary Kaye for a few grand than the real thing for $137,000!

[84Bravo]

In 1982 I bought one of the first reissue '52 Teles and paid $625, brand new and out the door. Today that guitar can be bought at a discount for $1349. Inflation. All CS will increase in value as well, but don't expect them to mimic their real counterparts unless someone with star power down the line ends up on the cover of VG playing a CS relic 56 Strat ash body, Candy Apple Red, gold hardware, hardtail, with stock three way switch. If you have THAT guitar, you might get lucky. Otherwise, buy low, sell high.

[bluesjuke]

Will the future hold an even trade- one reliced Beany Baby for a Reliced CS?

Buy 'em & play 'em for all they are worth since that's what we bought them for in the first place.
If they are worth more in the future- enough that you're willing to part with it -than that's a bonus.

Play on Dudes!

I bought mine because that price is what it took to get what I wanted, in a player.

[go7]

For investment I see my financial advisor. For good guitars I go to Heatley.The two should not be confused IMHO. Fender CS guitars are just too common to have any supply and demand relavence. I just buy my guitars to play and am amazed at the number of threads on TGP on the subject of investment. Is this a guitar investment forum or a guitar players forum? I don`t think any of us have crystal ball powers. Enjoy!

[GDking]

Tell me about the future value of Fender Custom Shop Guitars and their Boutique knock offs.

I am just wondering if my fender custom shop guitars will hold their value or appreciate like the vintage guitars have. 50 years from now what will these standard custom shop guitars value be?

Then I wonder you have these companies like GVCG,Revelator,Nash,Kline.

Will these guitars be worth anything? Hell will they even be worth what they cost new? 50 years from now will these guitars be worth nothing?


If you want to buy an investment, buy a house. If you have one once you have enough equity, buy another and rent it out to cover the nut. You will make money on it someday.

Now that you know how to make some money...

Guitars are for playin. I bought my friends kid an action figure for the holidays he wanted. I went over there months later and there it was on the shelf in the friggin box, I am like "hey why did you leave that in the package".. The kid goes "Oh gee it might be collectable some day"

Don't be that kid :jo

[GDking]

Making the argument that your instrument will appreciate is just an argument men use to convince their wives it is OK to buy the guitar:)
What to play? buy a guitar, want to make money? Buy real estate, in 10 years our house has quadrupled in value, I would have had to buy 15 Sunburst 59 pauls in 1959 to make the same money.
This is a good time to buy a house for an investment:BEER http://www.firsteam.com/aurasuhr/

Dang you beat me to it..

+1 hehe

[Vibrolucky]

I am aware of a Detemple that sold for a little over $10k. It cost $4k two years ago, not bad at all.