Gear that most likely will appreciate in 10, 15 years time

[masayako]

What gear most likely will appreciate in 10, 15 years timeframe?
:phones


- Wildwood "10" strat
- Gibson Custom Les Paul historic
- Taylor 514-CE

__________________________________________________ ___________

Steve,

I just wanted to drop you a note and thank you and your team for your expert assistance in the purchase of my new Wildwood "10" Masterbuilt '59 Telecaster. It is an outstanding instrument and the tonal and playability characteristics were exactly as you described. I really like the Abigail hand wound Tele pickups, particularly the bridge, which has a lot of power and tone variability, but no harsh edges. As usual with Wildwood, the guitar also came perfectly set up.

This is the second John Cruz guitar that I have purchased from you and they are both truly excellent guitars. I think we agree that these WW10 Masterbuilts are some of the finest guitars ever made by Fender and are the future vintage collectible instruments.

As you know, my background is as a portfolio manager. Since the government is clearly monetizing the excess leverage in the financial system, it's a good bet that we will see an acceleration in inflation down the road. In that kind of environment, it makes sense to have some tangible assets as a component of the portfolio, to offset the loss in the purchasing power of paper. High quality WW10 guitars fit the profile. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the value of these guitars double or triple over the next decade. The great thing is that you also get to make music with them. Try doing that with a bar of gold!

Thanks again, Steve.
-Paul

[335guy]

The same that has already appreciated in value. Old Fender and Gibson guitars and amps.

[Dizi]

I think people are jaded by seeing how 50's/60's/70's vintage instruments have escalate in value. I don't think its a guarantee that any instrument will do the same. And it doesn't help if its a guitar you paid $3k for recently. And the relic phase will pass, especially as the market is currently being flooded by it. Relics may become so common that "new" guitars may come back around in popularity.

[Thwap]

None.

[jimmybcool]

The gear that will appreciate is that which is in demand greater than supply. Simple economics really.

A perfect example of this is machine-guns in the USA. Back in 1986 a law was passed that didn't outlaw currently owned machine-guns BUT forced any owners of such to register them with the ATF for $200 license tax. In that legislation no NEW weapons or old ones not registered during the amnesty could be legally owned by civilians.

This put an fixed cap on supply. Since then, the desire to own them both as investment and for fun has increased which has driven up the price of them. Scarcity and demand moved in opposite directions. Simple.

I don't understand why a current model Fender guitar, which will still be available to order in 15 years no doubt, and can me manufactured at will with no limit will increase much in value? What will drive the scarcity down or demand higher?

The same holds true of the Gibson. They will make Historics until no one buys them. The Taylor guitar MIGHT have a chance if mahogany wood is placed on an endangered list. Still, how much will it change?

You might be right I just don't understand your methodology.

My picks for what gear (assuming guitar gear is the area) is a good investment, right now none. For the truly investment grade stuff like early Gibson LPs and early Fenders, the price is STILL too high to justify much increase. I believe it will stagnate at current levels for a long time.

The only way I see them climbing from the silly price of today is if inflation changes the value of a dollar dramatically.

IF I had a gun to my head and was asked what guitar gear might be a good investment for a 15 year window I would guess in a few areas.

1) Acoustics made of rare woods from recognized quality companies. Such as 60's Martin D28 in brazilian or modern quality luthiers (i.e. Collings, Sanata Cruz, Huss and Dalton, etc) using braz.

2) "pointy guitars". The reason the classic Fenders and Gibsons are so expensive is they are the guitar of the current late stage middle agers who have the most disposable income. These boomers have chased the value of their memories up in guitars and 60s cars. When the next generation hits 50 their memories will be of a different set of guitars which are currently pretty cheap.

Honestly, I would not bet on being able to buy much today with expectation of much return in 15 years. And, this also applies to my earlier comparison to machine-guns. The scarcity remains, but the prices have risen to the point of locking out new players. Existing players don't plan to pay ever higher prices since they got used to the lower ones.

But I'm gonna tag this thread to see if someone else has a method that offers an idea or two. Good idea for a thread.
:dude

[treeofpain]

Original sunburst Les Pauls
Black guard Telecasters
Stratocasters from 1954-1965
Original dot neck ES-335s
Gibson semi-hollow doublenecks from 1958-1962
Dean guitars prior to 1983
BC Rich "supreme koa" models from the 70's
Strat head Kramers and Charvels from the late 70's-early 80's
Kramer rare graphics from the mid-80's

a few others...

[gixxerrock]

Interesting analysis jimmybcool. I believe there are a few factors where stuff will appreciate due to the supply side of the equation being finite. I think that as companies, the market and consumer tastes evolve product lines will change. There are products being manufactured today, that in 20 years will either not be available, or the perception will be the older ones are better.

- Iconic owners of companies will change ( the PRS, Leo Fender, Randal Smith, Hartley Peavey, Paul Rivera, Seymour Duncan, Howard Dumble, Jim Marshall etc...) and the brand will suffer.

- Models change to keep up with evolving comsumer tastes. For example, I think in a few years, "heavy relic" guitars will be viewed as very uncool, much like the pointy 80s shred guitar. I can't imagine demand for those staying constant, and production will drop accordingly. This will leave a finite number of guitars from the 2008 relic fad in the market.

- I think a lot of stuff being manufactured today is disposable and will not stand the test of time. Much of it will eventually fail and not be repairable. For example, the SuperChampXDs will not be repairable, while the 60s Champ will still live on. I think many relics have a finite lifespan. The things they do to the guitar, weaken it and speed up the aging process.

- Conceivably modeling or SS amps could replace tube amps. Kids growing up on Line6, will buy new feature laden Line6 and the old ones will go to landfill. Quality tube amps built to last, will appreciate in value if tastes ever swing back to tubes.

[jimmybcool]

Interesting analysis jimmybcool. I believe there are a few factors where stuff will appreciate due to the supply side of the equation being finite. I think that as companies, the market and consumer tastes evolve product lines will change. There are products being manufactured today, that in 20 years will either not be available, or the perception will be the older ones are better.

- Iconic owners of companies will change ( the PRS, Leo Fender, Randal Smith, Hartley Peavey, Paul Rivera, Seymour Duncan, Howard Dumble, Jim Marshall etc...) and the brand will suffer.

- Models change to keep up with evolving comsumer tastes. For example, I think in a few years, "heavy relic" guitars will be viewed as very uncool, much like the pointy 80s shred guitar. I can't imagine demand for those staying constant, and production will drop accordingly. This will leave a finite number of guitars from the 2008 relic fad in the market.

- I think a lot of stuff being manufactured today is disposable and will not stand the test of time. Much of it will eventually fail and not be repairable. For example, the SuperChampXDs will not be repairable, while the 60s Champ will still live on. I think many relics have a finite lifespan. The things they do to the guitar, weaken it and speed up the aging process.

- Conceivably modeling or SS amps could replace tube amps. Kids growing up on Line6, will buy new feature laden Line6 and the old ones will go to landfill. Quality tube amps built to last, will appreciate in value if tastes ever swing back to tubes.

All true. But without a crystal ball I can't tell what will appreciate. :)

For investment I'll stick to real estate, stocks, bonds, and gold. I just buy guitars I like to play.:aok

Although, a few years back I bought some "investment" guitars and now I'm not certain it will pay off. I have a few brazilian rosewood guitars stashed awaiting the next boom market. If it doesn't happen, oh well. :cry:

[gixxerrock]

All true. But without a crystal ball I can't tell what will appreciate. :)

For investment I'll stick to real estate, stocks, bonds, and gold. I just buy guitars I like to play.:aok

Although, a few years back I bought some "investment" guitars and now I'm not certain it will pay off. I have a few brazilian rosewood guitars stashed awaiting the next boom market. If it doesn't happen, oh well. :cry:
Totally agree. I could make predictions, but now I buy them to play. My only guitar buying regret is one I bought as an investment. It is a beautiful guitar and probably will appreciate, but I don't play it and never really bonded.

[Luke]

Appreciate as is outpace inflation?

Dumbles & Trainwrecks, maybe.

The guitars have peaked as of 2007, they will never go that high again inflation adjusted as the easy credit that caused the run up is over. By the next time credit is that loose again, the buyers will be sellers flooding the market to cover living expenses or nursing home costs.

[cmatthes]

If that guy blowing sunshine up the WW10s ("High quality WW10 guitars fit the profile") was MY portfolio manager, I'd fire the idiot. I wouldn't let somebody who truly believed that near my investments.

Puh-leese...

[jimmybcool]

Appreciate as is outpace inflation?

Dumbles & Trainwrecks, maybe.

The guitars have peaked as of 2007, they will never go that high again inflation adjusted as the easy credit that caused the run up is over. By the next time credit is that loose again, the buyers will be sellers flooding the market to cover living expenses or nursing home costs.

Sadly, I think MOST investments today are in that position. And cash ain't what it was. Inflation is staring us in the face and if our wonderful electeds in DC don't stop throwing "trillions" around like party favors we are really in the brown stuff.

[XKnight]

Anything that is mass produced in large volume will likely not appreciate in value very much. Look at the 1959 Les Paul as an example. It was not very popular when it was being built and production was limited. It was not until a decade later that these guitars started becoming popular and the prices just kept escalating from there because there was a very limited supply. I have no idea what the next 1959 LP is, but I can guarantee you it won't be anything that is currently being mass produced in large volumes by Gibson, Fender or PRS. I'd look at some of the small builders who are gaining popularity. As they become better known, their early production guitars will likely appreciate in value significantly over the next 20 years. For instance, a Grosh Setneck with a serial number under 100 may be very desirable in 20 years if Grosh continues to gain widespread appeal.

[Brett Faust]

Anything with high quality workmanship, great feel and sound made of unobtanium.

[cmatthes]

I agree. If you're looking for a real "investment" guitar, I'd say shoot for an early production PRS.

These Custom Shop and dealer runs are a dime a dozen any more. Something like a Guitar Trader LP RI from the early '80s may be special, because they were something totally unique at the time when Gibson wasn't doing anything near a faithful RI. However, LP RIs have been DONE TO DEATH over the last 20 years, so I doubt those are going to ever truly appreciate. If anybody truly believes that their WW10 is going to be THE guitar investment, they are sadly mistaken.

Those $25k Billy Gibbons LPs might be worth $10k in 20 years...

[Tim Plains]

The 25 Les Pauls that will be autographed/played by Jimmy Page being released later on this year.
They'll cost around $20,000 - $25,000 but will hit six figures before you know it.

[bluesjuke]

My made in the USA Bad Monkey like new in the box will sell for $400. in 17.3 years.

[pcovers]

None.
What he said

[Groovey Records]

When the shite hits the fan you can't eat a guitar.


And you won't be able to plug one in either.


I love a great guitar not as an investment but for the sweet music we make together

[Nu18F]

What he said

What they said.

[ZeeBee]

Supply and demand is the business model for worth.

If you have a guitar or amp without bells and whistles (basic awesome tone) then you might expect a monetary value increase in the future ... people will always pay for quality that does not become dated (for example, my cybertwin = dated).

My personal situation ... my pristine, all-original, home-kept 1966 Super Reverb (the equivalent of a 1961 corvette) will certainly not lose value.

My hollow-body G&L ASAT classic tele will also rise in value ... not necessarily by demand for G&L (as we know these guitars on the used market are always a steal as prices from original purchase significantly decline) ... but mine is signed by George Fullerton (and I have a picture to prove its authenticity). We met at Buffalo Brothers in Carlsbad, California during his book signing. I bought the guitar that day and asked him to sign it and take a pic. GREAT GUY ... very humble and nice man. :)

Perhaps my Heritage 535 will climb in value ... depends ... if you place value on a flawlessly built, old burst with a fat neck made at the original Gibson plant ... then maybe it will be value to someone.

Of course, here's the real deal ... my 25-year old son plays guitar. I "schooled him" on what I have ... told him never to sell them once I'm gone ... told him to teach his kids guitar (he has none now) ... and try to keep the guitars and amps in the family for 100-years ... THEN SELL THEM ... but only if they need the money!

[Brett Faust]

Your place near the front of the line at "The Luthier" with a very long wiating list and not too many years left may become more valuable than the original price of the guitar. Plus the current cost of the guitar.
Hmmmmm......... Guitar futures anyone? It could happen. I hope not.

[Wuchak]

All the stuff that is currently collectable will increase if value over the long term. There might be dips in the market but it will go up, although not as fast.

The stuff that will give bigger returns are the 80's guitars that nobody wants right now which are still relatively underpriced. Any made in the USA B.C. Rich falls into this category, especially the Warlock. Any of the MIJ guitars from Fernandes, Epiphone (the unfortunatly discontinued Elitist line comes to mind), etc. They will go up but you will have to buy them now and hold them for 20 years. Another line that is already going up and will continue to do so are the DeArmonds. Fender severly depressed the prices by blowing them out for about 25% of their former new prices in 2001. The prices have already doubled since then and will continue to climb. For current production models or recent makes Reverend guitars are a good bet. The Made in USA models are already shooting up. The Reverend amps are already selling on the used market above their original new price. Reverend also discontinues models regularly which makes them scarce and immediatly start to climb. I think the signature models are the ones that will go up the most. The Gil Paris and Pete Andersons will go up once discontinued. I think the Ron Ashetons will go up dramatically. The black one has already been discontinued. I wish I could buy 10 of them and stash them for 10 years.

What really will drive the demand is when some band hits it big playing a particular model amp and guitars they got from the pawn shop because they were cheap. Your guess is as good as mine as to what they will be but the most likely candidates are the good quality oddballs hanging in your local pawnshop today.

[Teleplayer]

.....darn......where did I put my crystal ball........

[Groovey Records]

Ashton's already discontinued but I bet they are waiting for you some where

Typical marketing
Search and Destroy


Didn't aanyone see the buble burst this spring

it is still falling


Gibson just layed off employees

EnJoY ThE MuSiC its worth more then the money

[infiniteposse]

I think small luthier guitars hold promise for the potential of appreciation. I think ultimately though, what's really going to make a guitar be worth a bundle is association with a player who becomes revered. If some modern-day Clapton comes along and plays Koll's, Kolls will then be more desirable than they already are... Those players that touch people will inevitably influence the potential for collectibility.

[Vibrolucky]

Its too difficult to tell....there are WAY to many market variables to figure this out.

Think about where things were 20 years ago. Certain guitars were highly collectible then, but alot has changed in the music world.

There are also effects that certain artists have on certain instruments. Think about the effect of the following:

White Stripes - Airline guitars (nobody really cared about them)
Nirvana - Fender Jaguar
Elvis Costello - Jazzmaster
SRV - Relic Sunburst Strats

There are other variables such as if certain envoirmental laws are passed 20 years from now that restrict use of woods....

Too many variables. You can never go wrong with classic instruments that play and sound good. Boutique stuff could go either way really....

[Drew68]

What gear most likely will appreciate in 10, 15 years timeframe?
:phones



American-made Gibsons and British-made Marshalls will be highly sought after in 15 years.

[rowdyyates]

Generally, guitars are no longer a "good investment". Then again, very little is worth what it was two years ago. I think pristine early Fenders and Gibsons will do well. Acoustics, maybe seven some more recent make of Brazillian Rosewood will do OK because that stuff is going away. Then again, Herrringbone D28's are down in value, but I think that's because some builders have figured out how to get that sound out of a new guitar. Who wouldn't want a new BW that sounds fantastic and has no issues for $8K over a 65 year old one that's falling apart for $40K?

[tim gueguen]

Its simple. Don't buy anything of recent manufacture expecting it to make you a bunch of money X years down the road. Buy what you like and can afford, and perhaps if you're lucky it will be worth something years from now.

[Brett Faust]

In the far future, robots will prefer guitars made on vintage CNC machines with as little hand work as possible.

[jeffwith1f]

In the far future, robots will prefer guitars made on vintage CNC machines with as little hand work as possible.


with any luck, robots will like robots
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3272/2856823467_14aab1d65a_b.jpg
although I can't envision selling this. I use it too much
heck, if the tuners crap out, and can't be replaced, I'd have normal tuners put in and keep using it. Just sounds that good. I got particularly lucky with this one.

[brentrocks]

I would like to think that Heritage Guitars will have their place in the vintage/collectable market in the next 15 yrs or so.....am i the only one that feels this way?

[HRydarcik]

MIJ Tokai guitars.

[Phil M]

I would like to think that Heritage Guitars will have their place in the vintage/collectable market in the next 15 yrs or so.....am i the only one that feels this way?

Looks like you're banking on it. I personally don't think so but what do I know (answer: nothin').

'80s/very early '90s PRS.

I'd like to say Gibson Historic Les Pauls because they hold their value reasonably well, but there are so many of them at this point. I think they'll hold value over that time period but I don't think they'll sky rocket.

[brentrocks]

Looks like you're banking on it. I personally don't think so but what do I know (answer: nothin').



i dont buy Heritages for investments...i just like them alot. i figured because of their historic origin, they might peak collector's intrests later on?

[JoeNewbie]

Instruments that will suddenly gain a lot of value are those relatively unknown pieces that eventually become a landmark, an integral piece of the music industry. One of the common aspects of such gems is how they started as an accessible piece of gear and made it superstardom.

Not very many instruments qualify to this reality and the most recent example is probably PRS' pre-factory guitars.

Other than that, most guitars will hold their value at best thanks to the inflation.

With that being said, I see the Historic LPs as being "good values". Don't expect them to appreciate much but expect a nice piece of gear that will hold its value in the future.

The Fender WW10, on the other hand, is already overpriced so it can only go down. Heck, Wildwood has some brand new examples in stock so it's not like people were crazy about them now. So why would they be crazy about them in the future?

[JoeNewbie]

i dont buy Heritages for investments...i just like them alot. i figured because of their historic origin, they might peak collector's intrests later on?

Heritage makes fine guitars but they are nothing exceptional. They offer great price value and sell a high quality guitar at a reasonable price. That's about it.

People don't care about Heritage now and they won't care about them in the future.

[stevieboy]

Any guitar you can prove was once owned by John Mayer. Especially the one he played at the MJ memorial.

[cmatthes]

Any guitar you can prove was once owned by John Mayer. Especially the one he played at the MJ memorial.

:roll

[brentrocks]

People don't care about Heritage now and they won't care about them in the future.

thats quite the blanket statement:cry:

[chucke99]

Ibanez Artcore Customs from the last few years are going to be collectors items in the future. They are amazing guitars, built in China, and are holding their values as used instruments, even now. I'm talking about the "100-level" models, not the sub-100 models (though those are good entry level instruments as well). In particular, the AS-103 models (335-ish shape) and the AW102 continue to get rave reviews.

I think if you can find the quality instruments coming out of China (of many different brands) those as a group are going to be collectible. That's a challenge, though, because a lot of crap is coming out of there too.

20 years from now, "MIC" will be the new "MIJ".

AS103NT:

http://www.chucke.com/pics/as103nt-side.jpg

AW102NT:

http://www.chucke.com/pics/aw102nt-side.jpg

[Jon C]

I would like to think that Heritage Guitars will have their place in the vintage/collectable market in the next 15 yrs or so.....am i the only one that feels this way?

quality, yes.

collectible. . . . No.

[JoeNewbie]

thats quite the blanket statement:cry:

Sorry I didn't mean that Heritage doesn't make a fine guitar. In fact, I bet all of their guitars are better built than today's Gibsons.

That being said, they fill a very particular niche. They're cheaper than a Gibson, but not THAT much cheaper. Even if I acknowledge they make "better" guitars, everybody still wants a Gibson.

[cmatthes]

Ibanez Artcore Customs from the last few years are going to be collectors items in the future.
I think if you can find the quality instruments coming out of China (of many different brands) those as a group are going to be collectible. That's a challenge, though, because a lot of crap is coming out of there too.

20 years from now, "MIC" will be the new "MIJ".

I don't think anything could be further from the truth.

Sorry!

[BigDoug1053]

I agree with the posters who don't see much appreciating guitar value coming down the pike. I think the grand series of bubbles in real estate, stocks, and guitars is over. Buy the guitars that you love and love playing, and enjoy them while you can.

With Peak Oil now a reality (crude oil production has not exceeded 77 Mbbl/d since 2005), I predict within 20 years that electricity everywhere will be spotty or non-functioning - like in Somalia today - or worse. So any amp or electric guitar will become increasingly worthless. Enjoy these lovely loud dinosaurs while you still can.

Well made and loud acoustic instruments will be in greater demand as electricty becomes more scarce. Dobros - banjos - fiddles - mandolins - accordions - horns. The good news? There will be great demand for live music and musicians will once again have a profession that actually supports them. The ability to actually play an instrument will count for a lot more than it has the past 30 years.

[JoeNewbie]

I don't think anything could be further from the truth.

Sorry!

+1

I'm not suggesting China can't make a fine guitar but as far as Ibanez is concerned the instruments made in China remain their lower end.

I think there are far better chances of seeing an early Eastman appreciate in value.

[Voodoo Blues]

No gear made after 1989 will appreciate in value. Doesn't matter if it's custom shop, limited edition or whatever.

[Melj]

What happened in 1989?

[fullerplast]

Potential wildcards in future appreciation include the supply of wood types, quality of wood, and available size. Expect to see more species on the endangered/protected CITIES list and expect to see fewer "10 top" quality tops, fewer one piece bodies. and fewer light pieces of wood, especially mahogany. All these, along with the inflation of new guitar prices, should keep the value of many existing quality guitars reasonably higher than average.

I would also consider guitars that are true vintage examples, those played by famous players, those that have represented a significant historical recordings or events, or those that are no longer made but still highly regarded, to command higher than average prices.

We also tend to only see US demands and trends, while there are global demands and trends that may change the market in ways we don't see yet.

[Thwap]

No gear made after 1989 will appreciate in value. Doesn't matter if it's custom shop, limited edition or whatever.

What happened in 1989?


He's got an 89 something.:D

[Phil M]

He's got an 89 something.:D

LOL!

[JPF]

Ibanez Artcore Customs from the last few years are going to be collectors items in the future. They are amazing guitars, built in China, and are holding their values as used instruments, even now. I'm talking about the "100-level" models, not the sub-100 models (though those are good entry level instruments as well). In particular, the AS-103 models (335-ish shape) and the AW102 continue to get rave reviews.

I think if you can find the quality instruments coming out of China (of many different brands) those as a group are going to be collectible. That's a challenge, though, because a lot of crap is coming out of there too.

20 years from now, "MIC" will be the new "MIJ".

I can see how your argument might suggest that Japanese-made/crafted guitars would appreciate, but I fail to grasp how the Chinese instrument would do so over the relatively short term horizon of 15-20 years. What am I missing?

[mototpsychel]

I don't buy guitars for investment purposes. But I do consider the ability of a given instrument to hold it's value. For that I consider used American made higher end instruments to do fairly well (so far) in that regard. Usually a Fender or a Gibson is always going to command a larger premium than Asian made guitars ( I exclude Japan from this). I think it's true to for a lot of the boutique instruments as well with some exceptions such as Trussart and some others.

A good buy might be (if you can still find them) are US made Reverends. I bought a Reverend Rick Vito & and sold it for well over what I paid for it less than a year later.

[jimmybcool]

With Peak Oil now a reality (crude oil production has not exceeded 77 Mbbl/d since 2005), I predict within 20 years that electricity everywhere will be spotty or non-functioning - like in Somalia today - or worse. So any amp or electric guitar .

Even IF we assume the peak oil theory is true there are so many other sources of energy and so many ways we can enhance the efficiency of our energy usage that predicting spotty electricity in 20 years is out there dude.

We have enough natural gas and uranium in the USA to power the nation for generations. Solar is something we are learning about and don't forget tidal and wind energy.

Let alone the vast quantities of oil reserves which are not pumped either cause they aren't worth the cost at current sales prices or because places like California have placed offshore drilling off limits.

Only a break down in society ala Mad Max will result in spotty electricity. And I got MY last of the V8 Interceptors with a blower in MY garage :D

[Speed_Racer71]

i wonder if Nitro finished guitars will go up..not relics now..but a new guitar nitro finished. I know the relic thing will pass. I was into it last year but now since there are so many its almost boring but the nitro bug has bitten me. It makes be want one just to see what it will look like in X amount of years of playing and by that I think id want to keep it longer instead of flipping guitars like it do. The newer nitro guitars of today might be something of value in the future just like the old ones we covet now esp if they quit making them and go back to poly..history repeating itself?? i dont know im grasping at straws.

[GregoryL]

I think certain vintage amps still have a lot of up-side compared to what we've seen in guitars. Not saying it will be anywhere near what we've seen with prime strats and LP's, but I think there's a lot of room for appreciation there.

I also think the phenomenon of boutique guitar builders is still fairly new and we could over time see a few emerge as the ones to have, similiar to how Benedetto emerged among archtop builders, which would drive up demand for their instruments. Who knows who it will be, but I could see it happening, particularly if (god forbid) something was to happen to one of the top builders that would limit supply.

Personally, I think Collings acoustics are also a good bet given the increasing scarcity of quality tonewoods. He's putting out enough instruments to have good name presence and the quality is absolutely top-tier.

[BigPapiFan]

No gear made after 1989 will appreciate in value. Doesn't matter if it's custom shop, limited edition or whatever.


I tend to agree. The guitar industry profited from the "collectibles" market. Like all such markets (i.e. electric trains, sports cards, Beanie Babies, coins, stamps...) the market became hyper-inflated and will collapse. I don't see current guitars appreciating very much. From what I see, they all depreciate rather rapidly and level off significantly under new prices.

[marantz1300]

70's Gibsons,Fenders,Marshalls.

[stevieboy]

Ask the same question 20 years ago, and what answers would you have gotten?

"Nothing made after 1965 will appreciate in value."

I wouldn't expect any guitar I own or am likely to buy to go up much, which is fine because I don't buy them for that reason, but then that's what I thought in 1986 when I bought my beat up 73 tele for 300 bucks. I think it's something that's very difficult to predict, as it's based on a lot of vague factors.

Ultimately it's obviously going to be based on supply and demand of course, but how those things will play out is where the vagueness comes in. The demand part is the toughest thing to predict. What about something made today won't be available in 20 years, and be considered desirable by enough people to drive the price up? We kind of see it now with Brazilian rosewood fret boards, and potentially that and other kinds of disappearing woods will become a big deal. It doesn't matter whether a factor is actually "better," rather the widespread perception that it's "better," no point in arguing what actually is better.

[Voodoo Blues]

He's got an 89 something.:D

LOL Well actually...

I said that because the 80's guitars will be the last of the "vintage" guitars. Just like the way 70's guitars are viewed today, 50's & 60's guitars cannot be had by 95% of players so 70's guitars are the vintage guitars that are still within reach. 80's guitars still have history behind them, for instance Fender was going through major changes. The last of the Fullerton guitars are fetching high prices and the early Corona ones are not far behind. Will anyone really look at a 90's guitar and consider it special?

Custom Shops and Limited Editions are really not that limited. The Fender Custom Shop is the 3rd largest guitar maker in the country. The market is oversaturated with the next big thing because they produce enough for everyone.



And for what it's worth my guitars are a '92 & a '98. :D

[stratocat63]

Not sexy but NOS tubes are a pretty good bet.

[BigPapiFan]

Not sexy but NOS tubes are a pretty good bet.


I agree wholeheartedly! Of course they aren't currently in production. They are more like those mythical "under the bed" vintage guitars you hear about.

[mdog114]

As has been said, the good woods are going to be where the money goes. Brazilian Rosewood acoustics will be pretty healthy.

[Donovan]

Do you think my 1956 Duo-Sonic will appreciate in value in 10 or 15 years?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v228/fuzztone65/Duo%20Sonic/Restored%2056%20Duo-Sonic/100_5415_edited-1.jpg

[joeybsyc]

Yes, actually i do... in fact, I think as the prices for pre CBS strats and Teles continue into unobtanium, the "lesser" models of Pre-CBS stuff will rise as more and more people decide they want an affordable Pre CBS era instument. Jags, Jazzmasters, and yes, even Mustangs and Duo-Sonics will climb in price... they HAVE to. There's no way a strat from the early 60s can be worth 50 or 60 grand and the lesser guitars will forever stay at sub 5 grand prices. There aren't enough of them out there to support all the people who will want one at those prices. This is of course just my opinion, and I don't even pretend to be an expert.

[squeally dan]

What happened in 1989?

I graduated from high school and the Rolling Stones played at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL. Just a couple things that come to mind.

[Yossi]

Let me ask a question for the experts:

Will my PRS Modern Eagle I with a Brazilian Rosewood neck and Fretboard go up in value because of the rarity of the wood?
Besides being an incredible guitar?

[PedalFreak]

I think, outside of the items that are already up there in price, it's going to be things that not many people see as being investment worthy right now.

No one ever thought Les Paul Jr's would sell for $15k, no one thought a $20 Airline guitar bought at Sears would sell for $1600.

Personally, I don't see any guitars made by the big companies that will be "highly" sought after 20 years down the road. I think everyone 20 years from now will be saying "I never thought that (insert guitar here) would be worth that! I remember when I had the chance to buy those for $200, and now look at them."

[cminor7b5]

Let me ask a question for the experts:

Will my PRS Modern Eagle I with a Brazilian Rosewood neck and Fretboard go up in value because of the rarity of the wood?
Besides being an incredible guitar?

NO! In 2019, after pets are outlawed, many of the people who belong to PETA will leave and form PETW (People for the Ethical Treatment of Wood).

With all the negative advertising it will be considered very selfish to play instruments with exotic wood like Maple and Pine, let alone Brazilian RW!

Actually vintage composite guitars like the carbon fibre acoustics will really appreciate in value as we all move to composite material guitars ;-)

[greg66]

Lots of early to mid 80s stuff is really affordable now and on they way up. Fender Japan Strats, Teles, and Performers are great quality; early Kramer Pacers and Barettas; interesting Gibsons like Spirits, XPL models, metal-oriented stuff with Kahler trem, the first Studio models, etc. All of it is really cheap now and well worth the money.

Of course, your top-dollar guitars from Gibson/Fender are going to hold their value pretty well and climb slowly after a couple of decades or more.

[small axe]

early prs's

[Yossi]

NO! In 2019, after pets are outlawed, many of the people who belong to PETA will leave and form PETW (People for the Ethical Treatment of Wood).

With all the negative advertising it will be considered very selfish to play instruments with exotic wood like Maple and Pine, let alone Brazilian RW!

Actually vintage composite guitars like the carbon fibre acoustics will really appreciate in value as we all move to composite material guitars ;-)

That's funny!

[Cue Dog]

I think early '80's G&L's will increase in value somewhat, it's already started to happen. I'm thinking particularly of my first-year (1980) L1000 bass as an example. There were also a lot of lesser known models that were made in small quantities, that were used by popular bands of the 80's. Also, I think it will help when people figure out that a lot of these instruments were quality-checked by Clarence Leo himself, these will be what those who can't afford vintage Fenders will be turning to....