Deciding price to sell?

[SGNick]

How do you guys do it? I decided to use simple statistics to determine a fair price.

I started by going on eBay and gathering the price of similar guitars. I gathered information on 25 guitars, all of the same model and took 11 that stuck out as being more than just slightly similar.

Using the entire collection of 25 guitars, I calculated the average and the standard deviation.

I ended up with an average of $670 and a standard deviation of $156.92.

Knowing that the condition of my guitar falls somewhere between so-so and average, I immediately rejected prices above $670, but that's up to you.

The end result is as follows. I can sell my guitar and expect to get a price anywhere between $513 and $670 based on the most recent sales of this particular guitar on eBay.

This is where judgment comes into play. I know what condition my guitar is in, which means I can take the value calculated and used my best judgment to determine a fair price. In this case, I chose a value of around $550.

As for the 11 very similar models, I did the same thing and found an average of $651 with a standard deviation of 91.49. Strangely, this came to the conclusion that the lowest price found within the margin is $560.

That said... Getting less of getting more is still very well in the cards.

Do you guys have a less scientific, less waste of time approach?

[XKnight]

If you're using Ebay to sell, start the bidding low and let the auction process do its thing. If the guitar is in demand, you will probably get above your calculated average price.

If you're looking to sell it on TGPs Emporium, then price it at what you consider a fair price that you're willing to sell it at. If it doesn't sell after a week, you'll know you should drop the price.

[Oakley]

Originally Posted by SGNick

How do you guys do it? I decided to use simple statistics to determine a fair price.

I started by going on eBay and gathering the price of similar guitars. I gathered information on 25 guitars, all of the same model and took 11 that stuck out as being more than just slightly similar.

Using the entire collection of 25 guitars, I calculated the average and the standard deviation.

I ended up with an average of $670 and a standard deviation of $156.92.

Knowing that the condition of my guitar falls somewhere between so-so and average, I immediately rejected prices above $670, but that's up to you.

The end result is as follows. I can sell my guitar and expect to get a price anywhere between $513 and $670 based on the most recent sales of this particular guitar on eBay.

This is where judgment comes into play. I know what condition my guitar is in, which means I can take the value calculated and used my best judgment to determine a fair price. In this case, I chose a value of around $550.

As for the 11 very similar models, I did the same thing and found an average of $651 with a standard deviation of 91.49. Strangely, this came to the conclusion that the lowest price found within the margin is $560.

That said... Getting less of getting more is still very well in the cards.

Do you guys have a less scientific, less waste of time approach?

OK - What do you do for a living? I think that's a fair question if you're gonna confess to calculating the standard deviation of used guitar prices.

But that's pretty much what I do. Well, except for the standard deviation thing. I keep track of what the actual selling prices were on eBay from completed auctions. High bids on guitars that didn't sell don't count. Nor do BIN prices. Only guitars that actually sold.

[biggreen]

I'm not sure where you experience level with Enay is but I'll give you 2 of the most important tips from my experience.

1. End time - make it somewhere between fri and Sun night, late Fri seems best to me.

2. Pictures - lot's, very clear and as flattering as possible, preferably outside in nice weather.

[Ah Xoc Kin]

Originally Posted by SGNick

Using the entire collection of 25 guitars, I calculated the average and the standard deviation.

I ended up with an average of $670 and a standard deviation of $156.92.

The median would be a more accurate indicator, since the average can fluctuate given extreme values

The way I determine a selling price is different. Usually it's what I paid, and I deduct a percentage based on the time I had the gear, condition, etc.

For example, I got a new Les Paul for $1000. I had it for 2 weeks or so, and put it on eBay for $1000. The auction ended a bit over $1200. I made a small profit, and the buyer got a great deal since the guitar typically sold for $1800.

But the market is strange. I've practically given away stuff and got no bids. A while ago after weeks of offering gear at low prices, I increased the price significantly. The items sold. But I don't like doing that!
Right now I have an auction for some equipment, pretty much as new. List price was over $1500, and street price was around $900. I have the auction starting at $375, no reserve. And no bids. It's the third time I have those items on eBay

[chaz]

Another auction consideration I've found is that ending times that coincide with the first of the month, and to some extent the week following, usually don't do as well as ending times during the middle weeks of the month. My guess is it has to do with competing with things like rent and car payments. YMMV

[treeofpain]

I think it just depends on the item. Some things will get consistently good money regardless, while most things will vary a bit depending on the factors listed above.

Usually when looking at completed items, you will find most of the prices huddled in a certain range. Outlyers (high or low) are usually where they are for a reason, but not always. :-)

[BigPapiFan]

With guitars, I try to sell them on Craigslist first. It doesn't cost anything and, if I get lucky I don't have to ship and deal with Paypal.
There is a psychology to auctions that I am not sure I understand. I think you need a low listing price to get people to look and bid. OTOH, you don't want to take a bath. I usually start the bidding low - maybe $199 - 299 in the case of a guitar like yours, and then protect myself with a Reserve Price set at the minimum price I'd sell the guitar for. Sometimes I actually tell the reserve price in my Item Description. Sometimes I post in the reply I give to the first prospective buyer email.

[hackenfort]

I find on e-bay start off with no reserve and a very low opening price often the item sells for more than I expect, and more than I would get on forums / craigs.

I usually try here for a week at what I consider a fair price - then off to e-bay. It typically sells high enough to cover the fee's and then some. Plus the nice thing - it's gone quickly.

IMO there is nothing worse that bumping a guitar no one wants forever on these pages.

[SGNick]

Originally Posted by Oakley

OK - What do you do for a living? I think that's a fair question if you're gonna confess to calculating the standard deviation of used guitar prices.

I'm just a chemistry student! My exams are done and I felt like calculating! funny thing is, I've never done a Stat class, so all my knowledge of standard deviation and stuff comes from the radioactive disintegration of Strontium...

I also calculated the optimal vertical speed for aircrafts trying to follow the 3 to 1 rule... turns out, it's 1800feet/minute.

[MisterTV]

[quote=XKnight;4059173]If you're using Ebay to sell, start the bidding low and let the auction process do its thing. If the guitar is in demand, you will probably get above your calculated average price.[quote]

+1

In my experience, the lower the opening bid, the greater number of "watchers" who sign on to track the auction. It's a risk, but that's where the thrill comes in... they're hoping to "steal" your guitar at under market value, while you're praying it doesn't happen.

And you know what? It rarely happens. After a few days of following an auction, people start visualizing themselves with the guitar. In their mind, it's already theirs... they're emotionally invested and they *have* to have it. This leads to an explosion of bids at the end... the calculus has changed. It's no longer about them stealing it from you - it's about preventing another bidder from stealing it from them.