The gear market feels like it's getting very soft

[Julia343]

I wanted to sell an amp. I paid over $2000 for the amp. I've been checking and while used they were going reasonable two yrs ago, they're selling for about $500 -$650 now, so it's like why bother? So it'll continue to gather dust until the economy improves or I decide to take a bath on it for a set of used golf clubs. Yet I sold a Peavey 6505 last September for almost what I paid for it new.

The economy just sucks and is showing no signs of getting better. This is an economic depression that started in 2007, which I think is going to be our lost decade.

[AJ Love]

It is definitely a buyers market right now. Sellers who want to move their gear need to price things accordingly.

Eventually everything will correct itself. Gear X which used to sell for $1500 might now sell for $1200, but a few might find it for $1100 and flip it for $1200. Those that originally bought at $1500 are gonna lose money, thats just the way it be...

This is a Depression we are in, not a recession, and the economists that I trust say it will likely last until 2019-2021

[2HBStrat]

Originally Posted by ripoffriffs

... Zendrive can be sold for $175 ($200 new).....

Where? I want a Zendrive (I think!)...

[Gasp100]

Originally Posted by AJ Love

It is definitely a buyers market right now. Sellers who want to move their gear need to price things accordingly.

Eventually everything will correct itself. Gear X which used to sell for $1500 might now sell for $1200, but a few might find it for $1100 and flip it for $1200. Those that originally bought at $1500 are gonna lose money, thats just the way it be...

This is a Depression we are in, not a recession, and the economists that I trust say it will likely last until 2019-2021

I agree.
Definitely a bad time to have to sell gear you bought new unless it's an AxeFX II (seriously).
Use sound judgement in your purchasing decisions, buy used when you can and be prepared to normally accept some type of loss and you'll be fine. Hell, my last three sales were my biggest profit making moves selling gear EVAR, just because I waited and waited to BUY low and was able to flip higher.
But, buying and selling gear is a loser's game (unless you actually like to play the gear you are buying

-- FYI, I just saw on of the Danocaster ads in the emporium that you referenced... imho, priced WAY too high for the current market. Just my 2 cents.

[plisken]

Originally Posted by CyberFerret

Sadly though, the international freight companies seem to be doing the opposite, and doubling their shipping costs, which is frustrating for us outside the US. Plenty of great priced gear that I would love to jump on, but the shipping cost increase negates the cheaper buy price...

Shipping companies are increasing their pricing structure given their significantly escalating costs, fuel being the primary variable.

Very few businesses have any pricing power in a negative shifting demand curve market, including sellers of Gear per this posting.

Prices will in all probability continue to drop.

[pickaguitar]

Originally Posted by Crowder

I know there have been a bunch of threads on resale values, the "buyer's market" for gear, etc., but here lately it seems like prices are falling quickly and no one is able to find a buyer unless they price very aggressively.

Or maybe it's just my imagination....

That's a GOOD thing!

[gillman royce]

Originally Posted by Lucky one

I've been around this for 40 years and this is the worse I've seen the market for new and almost new gear. If you are lucky enough to have any money and it's earning barely any interest,there are great buys to be had. I certainly hope it doesn't get worse. I've bought quite a few pieces that I thought were steals. Time will tell if they were but with CD's paying @ 1%, it's not a huge risk.

Remember what drove the market in the first place: a Japanese economy that was on fire. They came over in the eighties and were willing to spend 5-10x the current going rate on vintage gear.Then they went bust. In 1981 when there was still a different bank on almost every corner, a 6 month CD paid 16% interest, regardless of the amount of deposit. Today, you literally can put in upwards of $1-2M and the best you're going to get is 1.25% on a 13 month CD. Obama had the chance to break up the big banks which would have created both jobs and competition but he declined as he wanted the Money Establishment's campaign contributions. Top European economists grim forecast is that the U.S. economy will not improve for ten years - a generation. The "great " deal of today will look merely good to average a year+ from now.

[Fireball XL5]

After reading through this thread I can't help but wonder:

Given the current economy in regards to the gear market, I'm curious as to what people around here feel is a realistic amount of depreciation one should expect when selling their gear?

I'm guessing based upon what I've seen here, that as a general rule of thumb, a seller should expect to take approximately a 30%-35% hit off the price of what an item can be purchased for new - including shipping & Paypal.

So if an amp can be bought new for $2000 shipped & Paypal'd from a dealer, rule of thumb selling this same item used would be $1300 - $1400 shipped & Paypal'd.

When priced this way, gear tends to sell in a reasonable amount of time, yet most gear I see for sale here in the emporium is not priced this aggressively - and it sits.

Perhaps, sellers are just not being realistic? Opinions?

[plisken]

Originally Posted by gillman royce

Remember what drove the market in the first place: a Japanese economy that was on fire. They came over in the eighties and were willing to spend 5-10x the current going rate on vintage gear.Then they went bust. In 1981 when there was still a different bank on almost every corner, a 6 month CD paid 16% interest, regardless of the amount of deposit. Today, you literally can put in upwards of $1-2M and the best you're going to get is 1.25% on a 13 month CD. Obama had the chance to break up the big banks which would have created both jobs and competition but he declined as he wanted the Money Establishment's campaign contributions. Top European economists grim forecast is that the U.S. economy will not improve for ten years - a generation. The "great " deal of today will look merely good to average a year+ from now.

Good points on your obervations of Japan's excessive capital flows in the 80's and the "distortion " it caused in our markets ( real estate, ect ), we essentially repeated the same process here in the intervening years, however short term interest rates at 16% were a function of the Fed's policy to destroy the destabilising effects of rampant inflation during that period of time, it worked perfectly and the nominal rate has been essentially stable since that time. Bank's couldn't possibly pay out a equivalent rate today in a low interest rate/ environment and the Fed Funds rate at practically 0. Alternatively stated, you cant pay 16% on short term money and lend it out at 4.5 for a 30 year fixed rate....

[Darkburst]

I think you're correct Fireball.

[Ampegasaur]

Market is in the crapper. Have to almost give stuff away, money is tight for people.

[Kitten Cannon]

I don't know, it's bugging me on both sides of it. I'm not seeing these great deals, but I can't sell anything and haven't been able to for years without letting it go for less than when I bought it, even if it was bought used at a good price. I guess I've done okay on a few deals, but if this were an investment pursuit, it'd have been a horrible investment. That said, I did buy a 60s J45 and hopefully that'll turn out to be a worthwhile investment over the long haul, but it may be a LONG haul.

Oddly, at the same time, I put up a WTB ad for a fairly common guitar (production Fender) and can't seem to find one. I've only had the ad up a few hours, but I remember a time when that would have been met with a PM almost instantly, presumably to allow the seller to try out something new. Weird. I think in some ways it's like the credit card thing right now... balances are actually down as people are shoring up. If they have a good guitar they're less likely to let go of it, unless they're really desperate. The whole cycle of buying selling AND trading seems to have slowed down.

[whaiyun]

I'm still waiting on the amazing deal. Prices are all about the same for similar items. Yeah, I'm cheap.

[Bodhisattva]

I know, i guess i'll just have to quit buying and selling and learn to play these damn things! Gah!

But yeah i'm feeling it too. I know i watched my 401k drop about 6K last week but it's coming back up. Maybe the gear market will too.

Course like everyone else says about the overall stock market. Now is the time to Buy buy buy!

[mad dog]

This slow gear market is driven by the relative lack of buyers, not by the relative or unwarranted high prices asked by sellers. Sure, some things are optimistically priced. Many more are fairly priced, and sitting around anyway.