Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by RCCola, May 5, 2017.

  1. cogan

    cogan Member

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    Seems an odd observation that the long term is the way to earn your money in crypto, since it’s only been a thing for about 9 years. How could we possibly know this?
     
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  2. dinocicerelli

    dinocicerelli Member

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    Wow, this is getting interesting. St. George’s Eco Mining has a deal going with a blockchain guy, Dr. Wei-Tek Tsai that just developed a blockchain that ran a billion transactions in 20 days, without a single hiccup. That’s amazing.
    I’m not putting any money on Bitcoin, but, have a few bets on some of the emerging technologies that are associated, including for weed transactions.
     
  3. ChazFromCali

    ChazFromCali Member

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    You missed my point.
    How you earn your money is by holding on through the fallbacks and F.U.D. Thus H.O.D.L. (hold on for dear life)
    These 40% + beatdowns happen from time to time. A lot of new ppl. in crypto's lately, maybe panicking and bailing out and buying in later at higher prices. Or getting completely scared out which is bad.... for them - not so bad or odd for people who can see the big picture.
     
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  4. cogan

    cogan Member

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    And I think you're missing my point. I haven't been crying "see - here's the crash!" when the price drops. Most of my posts have been more observations and questions than statements of fact. I don't know that it's going to bottom out any more than anyone knows that it's going to skyrocket.

    My biggest concern is that there is a certain personality (often seen in the TGP population just as in the general population) who always bets on anything that is contrary to the status quo - the guys who claim miracle cures as superior to the medical orthodoxy, lend credence to conspiracy theory, tell you that the stock market is about to collapse, that dropping out of college is the quickest way to get rich, that the government is going to come after their guns, that people who are financially comfortable are just "lucky"... anything to avoid acknowledging that the status quo has been attained through a process of natural selection and that betting on it is the most certain way to get ahead.

    So when I read "HODL", I take into consideration that a lot of the people who have staked this position are certain that the collapse of the world economy is imminent, or that the USD is about to buckle because the government will capriciously start printing money like toilet paper rolls for some unidentified reason. The idea that "HODL" is the way to go is simply impossible to know because it assumes certain things are going to happen which have never happened before, it also assumes that the driving force of bitcoin value is identifiable and that the behavior of investors (the thing that is ultimately determining the price) is predictable, which it never is. This is why almost no one reliably beats the stock market year over year and why so many people lost their shirts in the ".com crash". As best as I can tell, the HODL position is one more of the contrarian ideology laid out above than it is anything else and it has been my experience that that position is almost always wrong, generally because it is rooted more in sour grapes than it is in facts and some understanding of how the mechanisms of wealth and social order work.

    Despite the pseudonymity of the block chain, governments will find more efficient ways of regulating it. As an example, in the mid 2000s, the US government made it illegal for any financial institution to conduct transactions with offshore online gaming entities, effectively shutting down the entire industry in the Caribbean. It still exists in a limited capacity, but if Canada and the UK did the same, it would disappear entirely. Most of the trade in cryptos relies on bank transfers of fiat currency and the ultimate value of cryptos to the bulk of the population lies in its use as a surrogate for such. If enough governments strip that away through the regulation of banks and retailers, where does that leave the value of cryptos? Sure, there is still the core user black-market appeal, but that isn't enough to support the multi-trillion dollar valuation being heralded by the crypto-bulls.

    I'm not saying that digital currencies won't find a foothold, but I don't know that bitcoin is it. Maybe it is. But any suggestion that buying as much as you can is a sure bet is really just speculative at this point since the inherent value of bitcoin has yet to be established and the market price mostly reflects the demand of buyers who don't fully understand what they have bought and only bought because the price was being driven up by more of the same; that much is clear from the rate and nature of expansion of the bubble.

    Good luck with it. I sincerely hope you make your billions but, you know, without necessitating the collapse of the world economy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2018
  5. ChazFromCali

    ChazFromCali Member

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    Not trying to make billions. Just retire.
     
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  6. cogan

    cogan Member

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    Again, I hope it works out for you, be it through short, middle, or long term gains. Just be sure to diversify!
     
  7. loudboy

    loudboy Member

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  8. msnes335

    msnes335 Supporting Member

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    Well done, excellent analysis :aok
     
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  9. msnes335

    msnes335 Supporting Member

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  10. Crowder

    Crowder Dang Twangler Silver Supporting Member

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  11. ChazFromCali

    ChazFromCali Member

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    If you're not loading up you're missing out on this gift.
     
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  12. Powderfinger

    Powderfinger Gold Supporting Member

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    You sound like one of those pump and dump guys on Yahoo Finance message boards.
     
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  13. Guitar Josh

    Guitar Josh Resident Curmudgeon

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    I've got a couple grand in altcoins and we'll see what that does in 20 years. Not sure if I have any interest in losing any more than I already have. Some people say you should buy through the bottom but I'm not convinced we are even near the bottom yet.
     
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  14. skronker

    skronker 2010/2013/2015 S.C. Champions

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  15. ChazFromCali

    ChazFromCali Member

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    I may be a pump-er but I never dump. I'm NOT a trader I'm a HODL-er. Still have every crypto I've ever bought. Buy and hold. Buy and hold. Buy and hold. And just for variation... buy and hold. Then when I'm tired of buying and holding I buy and hold.
     
  16. Powderfinger

    Powderfinger Gold Supporting Member

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    Probably very sound strategy with respect to stocks given their historical performance over hundreds of years but why would it apply to something with no track record at all. You might as well have said that about subprime mortgages or CDOs.
     
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  17. ChazFromCali

    ChazFromCali Member

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    The items you mentioned are part of the dying criminal economy.

    Crypto's are about the future.

    Understanding what a blockchain is and why transparency is a must, still and always will be the first step to understanding the big picture.
     
  18. skronker

    skronker 2010/2013/2015 S.C. Champions

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    decentralized currency
    peer to peer accountability and transparency
    you lose most people when you say something like "dying criminal economy"
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2018
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  19. loudboy

    loudboy Member

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    I wonder what he calls the people who are hacking/stealing bitcoins, right and left?
     

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