Gibson Forcing Workers To Work During Co-Vid19

Status
Not open for further replies.

aiq

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
10,220
Forced is a strong word.

The writer of the article is a union activist, not a bad thing in and of itself but might account for any bias.

That said I would hope everyone would be tough enough to follow the “five” for a few weeks to try and stabilize things.

My cataract surgery is half done, left eye procedure postponed as the surgical center is being prepped for possible hospital overflow if needed. Yeah my vision is weird but not that big a deal compared to the big picture.
 

Miroslav L

Member
Messages
1,608
Slowing it is why we’re shutting down. It’s not an attempt to stop it. If we don’t slow it, the results will overwhelm our system’s capacity.
It's already overwhelmed and not having much impact on the spread...and the shutting down of everything will overwhelm the rest of life as we know it.
Let's see how everyone feels about the shutdowns in 2 -3 weeks or so....
 

Vuur

Member
Messages
64
Or just like victim 22,000-55,000 of the regular flu. Just in the USA
Except the flu has vaccines against it.
Except the flu is less contagious.
Except the flu has a smaller fatality rate.
Except the flu causes less people to develop severe cases and be in need of hospital care.
Except the flu doesn't overwhelm IC's and the rest of the health care system like COVID-19 does, causing additional deaths, some not even from the virus itself.

Hence, data dictates that a lot more people will die from COVID-19 than from the flu. And a certain amounts of those deaths could have been prevented with more measures or people being more careful.

So, what is your point here?
 

RichusRkr

Member
Messages
804
The goal isn't to completely stop the spread. The goal is to slow it down enough for hospitals to be able to handle the number of cases coming in, and to allow some time to ramp up testing. People can do a pretty good job of self-isolating, as evident in South Korea and China, where the rate of new cases has been under 100 per day for the last week or so. However, you can only keep people home for so long before your country falls apart.

I think that once people run out of savings and hospitals have ramped up their ability to deal with new cases, we're going to see a shift in strategy toward isolating only the most vulnerable people (e.g., those above 60 and those with relevant health conditions). For everyone else, the health risks aren't high enough to justify the financial disaster that would result from keeping everyone at home until the virus disappears.
I sure hope your right. totally stupid to shut down society and destroy our economy over this threat. People will die, yes. either way, mostly very old and those with weak immunes. Sure I want to protect people but when you're old and sickly a common cold can kill you. How many healthy strong vibrant young men have died in our wars in the last 100 years.. ok google: 650,000!!!! just quoting the first website that came up.. so you're willing to DESTROY our economy to try to save some people who are dying of old age anyway??? how many will die if our economy tanks and people can't get basic necessaties of life??
 

CanuckChris

Member
Messages
1,586
Logarithmic is about the heaviest science term I know. Will someone please explain it better than I can and how it relates to the spread of the disease?
Sure. I'm a practicing scientist, so I'll give it a go ;) I was actually looking for some basic statistics on COVID-19 and found one website that produces both linear and logarithmic graphs. I've copy and pasted versions of each below:





As you can see, the logarithmic graph (commonly called log) has the y-axis (vertical axis on the left) increasing in multiples of 10. This is useful for growth patterns such as viral infections which demonstrate exponential growth. As you can see from the linear graph, once you start hitting exponential growth, it "flattens" the initial days of growth and starts making it difficult to interpret the data at a glance. The log graph, being exponential in nature, remains "linear".

Aside from interpretation at a glance, it also is useful for looking at predictions of what to expect for future cases. You may remember the linear equation of y=mx+b to describe linear growth. Well, the same can be useful for log or exponential growth substituting in log terms. In essence, it helps predict how many future cases we'll have based on the number of cases to date.

TLDR; logarithmic growth is a reflection of exponential growth. Log graphs help better evaluate data. Log equations better predict future cases.
 

CanuckChris

Member
Messages
1,586
This is what we should have been doing 4 weeks ago, it would have given us a big jump on things, but the denial was far stronger then than it is now.
Have a look at Taiwan. They started preparing as soon as they learned about the virus from China in December. Today, they are in a much better state overall. There will be many lessons learned once this is all over.
 

Miroslav L

Member
Messages
1,608
Except the flu has vaccines against it.
Except the flu is less contagious.
Except the flu has a smaller fatality rate.
Except the flu causes less people to develop severe cases and be in need of hospital care.
Except the flu doesn't overwhelm IC's and the rest of the health care system like COVID-19 does, causing additional deaths, some not even from the virus itself.

Hence, data dictates that a lot more people will die from COVID-19 than from the flu. And a certain amounts of those deaths could have been prevented with more measures or people being more careful.

So, what is your point here?
Mother nature is more clever than we are.
She's cleaning house...it's nothing that hasn't happened before, and will again.
We are always fighting the odds.
There is the fight to live...and the fight to be living.
 

twoheadedboy

Member
Messages
11,589
People will die, yes. either way, mostly very old and those with weak immunes.
Did you read my post? I suggested a strategy that specifically focuses on protecting the most vulnerable people, who are the oldest and people with serious health problems. We could get through this without many of them dying, because we don't need them to be working to keep the economy running.
 

teleman1

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
14,950
And time for another science break!

FYI...This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal Flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps.
Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing . . . i.e. genetics.

Seasonal Flu is an “all human virus.” The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year . . . you get immunity two ways . . . through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals . . . the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the [original] Spanish Flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans . . . then it’s a problem. Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity . . . the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now . . . sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human . . . once that happens, we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that's what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.

H1N1 was deadly . . . but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus . . . it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long . . . but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person . . . but here is the scary part . . . in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery.”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity . . . doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza . . . this one is slippery. And it’s a lung eater . . . and, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain S, and strain L . . . which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed . . . (honestly . . . I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.

And let me end by saying . . . right now it’s hitting older folks harder . . . but this genome is so slippery . . . if it mutates again (and it will), who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks . . . acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve.
Stay home folks . . . and share this to those that just are not catching on.
 

Occam

Gold Supporting Member
Messages
4,205
From the people that study this professionally, we’re likely looking at 18-24 months of this.

The problem is what happens if we stop the quarantine before we have a vaccine is that it starts up again. This doesn’t just affect old people. In South Korea where they were able to test even the asymptomatic they found many of them positive, even if you’re asymptomatic the r of covid-19 is so high that they’re likely to spread it to 2-3 people each. My wife has multiple sclerosis and and even though she’s 33 her medication may make her more vulnerable to corona. I have high blood pressure and I take an ACE inhibitor and mechanistically I could be more prone to a sever case but so much is also unknown currently because this version of the virus is less than 4 months old has has likely gone through 3 mutations in the human population so far. I’m not an immunologist but I am a biologist and this is very serious.
If you’d like to see a good, simple video that runs through what we know on YouTube look up “It’s okay to be smart” especially the St. Louis vs Philadelphia part.
 

PickPlucker

Member
Messages
274
Had not heard that, but that is great news for those who can take advantage of it. Hopefully this becomes the norm across the industry, if not, home prices will crater and rents will skyrocket, I would think.

Well since Fannie and Freddie holds, or insures, upwards of 90% of the mortgages issued in the US, this is HUGE. Oddly it doesn't seem to be getting much publicity, despite the potential to alleviate suffering for millions of regular folks....
 

PickPlucker

Member
Messages
274
What are you basing that claim on? We aren’t yet at capacity.
Perhaps not at capacity yet, but certainly will be before it's over. WA state is already what will probably be the blueprint for triage plans when that happens. Basically those with the best chance for survival and someone to take care of them post treatment will get treatment. The old, those with pre-existing conditions/compromised immune systems, and those with no one to care for them will be kept comfortable and left to die.
But shutting things down is the only way to slow it, regardless.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.




Trending Topics

Top