Guitar market over next 1-2 years...

Discussion in 'Guitars in General' started by Nuclearfishin, Jan 18, 2008.

  1. Nuclearfishin

    Nuclearfishin Supporting Member

    Messages:
    921
    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2007
    What do you guys think the guitar market will do over the next 1-2 years? With everybody talking about a recession looming on the horizon, I'm curious how this might affect the market for both recent instruments as well as vintage guitars. I'm thinking the vintage market may continue to increase slowly and steadily but the market for more recent instruments may take a downturn as people sell off guitars that they may need to cash out during a longer recession.

    I know it's been a pretty good buyers market lately, what say you all about the market if a recession hits for a year or two?

    Cheers!
     
  2. daddyo

    daddyo Guest

    Messages:
    11,808
    Joined:
    May 19, 2003
    I've already noticed that higher priced non-vintage gear is dropping to reasonable levels. I've seen known and TGP approved boutique axes and amps sell for 50-65% of new as opposed to 90-110% of new depending on wait times. I bet that the next 12 months are the time to buy that R9 or Bogner amp as people buying like crazy with credit lines face reality and try and move stuff. I think that decent vintage stuff will hold its value as it always does.
     
  3. drunkenguitar

    drunkenguitar Supporting Member

    Messages:
    504
    Joined:
    May 20, 2007
    Location:
    Alaska
    I guess now is the time to start saving money, eh?
     
  4. edwarddavis

    edwarddavis Supporting Member

    Messages:
    6,031
    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2005
    Location:
    Bristol Connecticut
    I noticed things are kinda slow. One type of gas is suffering because of another type of gas costs. I am lucky and I hope the rest of you are as well as to have a stable decent job,
    I think we are in for higher prices for everything all around and guitars will drop not because of value but its not as high on the list as mortgage payments, food and gas to get to work.
    Lets all hope it gets better. rather pay more for a guitar once in a while than 10 dollars a gallon for gas.
     
  5. brentrocks

    brentrocks Guitar Hack/Player Gold Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,752
    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2006
    Location:
    S.W. Michigan
    All I know, is if Mr. Bush sends me a $1600 check, I'm buying another guitar!:dude
     
  6. wilerty

    wilerty Member

    Messages:
    1,140
    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2007
    Location:
    Syracuse, NY
    The recession is here and sinks all boats. Just watched the Barrett Jackson auto auction and prices were way down there. Fear and less discretionary income will hurt the industry untill things turn around. Few of us HAVE to buy another guitar ... but we do need gas and food.
     
  7. Dylan61

    Dylan61 Member

    Messages:
    958
    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2006
    Location:
    the Netherlands
    Stocks went down the drain last weeks, a big sell-out and they go always way before the 'market'.
     
  8. bluesjuke

    bluesjuke Disrespected Elder

    Messages:
    24,154
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2005
    Location:
    Gretchen's House, Bluesland, TX.


    Never admit that to a wife!!!
     
  9. Rick51

    Rick51 Member

    Messages:
    3,257
    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2007
    Location:
    North Carolina
    Stock market is crashing. Residential real estate is crashing. I'd say there are not as many people with $10K-$20K-$30K for an old guitar as there used to be.

    If you are a collector, keep your money in your pocket for now. Some great buys are coming.

    If you are an investor, how long can you hold on?
     
  10. dkals

    dkals Member

    Messages:
    1,296
    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2008
    Location:
    Over by there
    I would not say the housing market is crashing. It is getting back to where it should have been. Cost of housing went up 150% in some areas and income goes up 2% per year. Do the math. If your house was worth 300K in 2003 and in 2006 you thought it was worth 500K guess again.

    Now that people can not strip equity, off the cuff spending is over. So the same goes for guitar & amps prices. If your just an average person it does not mean you have to sell your guitar or amp for less. Just hold it and enjoy it. If your in the business then yes they may have to lower prices. Thats a business cycle.

    That is why banks and builders are lowering prices of homes. They are in the business where the average homeowner trying to sell is not in the business full time.
     
  11. NatDeroxL7

    NatDeroxL7 Member

    Messages:
    972
    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2007
    Location:
    WA
    I think I have a bit of luck with this whole recession thing, since in about 6 months I will be making vastly more money than I ever have before (nothing special, but going from $500 a month to active duty 2LT pay is quite a jump). On top of that, it is quite possibly the most secure job around right now, and I have no dependents or girlfriends/wives. With very few college loans.....one of which is only 1.98% interest....I am hoping I can clean up on the gear people are trying to dump. The only question is........where will I keep all of it until I finish my training and land at my first permanent duty station!?

    I figure I can probably fit 10-15 guitars and 10-15 amps in my old bedroom at my parents house :D
     
  12. Lawn Jockey

    Lawn Jockey Member

    Messages:
    5,753
    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2007
    Location:
    Oklahoma
    +1

    ....maybe two if I can get a bargain.
     
  13. Timmo

    Timmo Member

    Messages:
    3,553
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2004

    Oh to be young and still care about stuff that much.........:rotflmao
    I remember those feelings. Enjoy 'em! They don't last all that long.........
     
  14. rockinlespaul

    rockinlespaul Member

    Messages:
    3,850
    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2004
    Location:
    Michigan

    Yes.
     
  15. JohnCovach

    JohnCovach Supporting Member

    Messages:
    364
    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2007
    Location:
    Rochester, NY
    Economic downturns are the market's way of fleecing the amateurs. Hold tight and buy when you can.
     
  16. Tycho

    Tycho Member

    Messages:
    1,031
    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Location:
    Toronto

    I think the government and the Fed would prefer that you started spending....
     
  17. Jon C

    Jon C Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    15,213
    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2002
    Location:
    Mid Atlantic USA
    discretionary income/cash will be more scarce, it will stifle price increases... buy carefully
     
  18. bluesjuke

    bluesjuke Disrespected Elder

    Messages:
    24,154
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2005
    Location:
    Gretchen's House, Bluesland, TX.


    Thanks for your service and congrats on your upcoming commision!
     
  19. robbph37

    robbph37 Member

    Messages:
    291
    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2006
    Location:
    Bluegrass State of Ky
    I posted this remark on another thread but I would be very careful buying any Bout. guitar right now if you think there is a good chance that you may have to flip it if times get rough. There are 2 brands that I have monitored over the past 8 months. I would love to have a guitar from one of the builders but I have noticed a 35% to 40% drop on the open used market. Now if you buy used I think you are in good shape but to order one new right now at current prices could be risky. Again if you know it will be a keeper then go for it. To me the guitars from this builder are top notch but for some reason they tank on the used market. It seems the only Bout. builders that are holding steady are the low producers. Some have stopped taking orders until they catch up but it seems to have helped their guitars value on the used market.
     
  20. A.Pulverizer

    A.Pulverizer Member

    Messages:
    413
    Joined:
    May 2, 2007
    Location:
    USA
    I sold a USA Jackson Student Rhoads model in June of 2006 on Ebay for $750 shipped. IIRC, I had 12 bids on it. The guy who bought it just sold it on Ebay for $645 shipped and only had 2 bids. I think it's only going to get worse in the coming months. Great time if you're a buyer, but I think there's going to be lots of selling going on.
     

Share This Page