Hi forum minds! What will happen during the anticipated inflation? Money will loose its value, but what about collectable guitars, basses and other expensive vintage stuff? Any ideas?
My opinion? Don’t rush into anything expensive on a whim, don’t spend money you can’t afford to lose short term, buy what you really want and know you’re going to get a lot of use out of whether it’s worth 5k or 50 quid.
"Experts" have been predicting the demise of the boomer generation and the fall of guitar prices for at least 15 years. It hasn't happened yet, and no one really knows if it will happen later. For instance certain eras of automobiles fall out of fashion with an aging population.
As was said, younger folks want these guitars as well, but as a group have somewhat less money to burn. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. But again, no one really knows.
I would expect that inflation will moderate in the next 6-9 months, the question is if there will be a resulting recession. And the Ukraine situation is also a wild card. Recessions are not great for collectables, remember 2008?
As was said, buy what you want to play if you want to get into this quagmire. Buy from reputable sources. And my 2 cents, as best you can, buy quality. Quality all-original pieces are more likely to hold their value and are easier to sell if necessary. That was the best piece of advice I received when I started out in the vintage thing.
I bought a pedal (Fulltone Soul Bender V1) from them and paid a 24% buyers premium..I'm not sure what inflation is going to do with vintage guitar prices, however, a 1970 Black Stratocaster just sold today on a live auction site for USD12,250 + 18% buyers premium.
Thats a total sale price of USD14,445.00 plus shipping.
If this particular sale is anything to go by hen it doesn't appear that prices are falling right now.
50 guitar guys in a bar discuss economics - got to be a joke in there somewhere!
[oh, i had a degree in politics + economics decades ago - the vintage guitar market is or could be a straight supply and demand situation, but it's not, because it's not a rational market, guitars are not guns and butter.]
...Do you even understand what inflation is?...the devaluation of money....Do guitars devaluate? None of mine ever have, because I only buy old guitars that are going up in value...
Good explainer for the OP except for that little bit about only buying old guitars that go up in price. Generally, the old collectible guitars maintain their static value while the currency continues to go down, so it takes more devalued currency to buy the same old used guitar. It only seems like the old gear is getting more valuable.
Images from Venezuela, hyperinflation.
Yeah and you watch the space . The underdog Jazzmaster will have its day . The younger generation want something different to the Boomers who had eyes only for a Stratocaster or Telecaster . They already are influencing the Jazzmaster market . Look no further than Lemmo if you want proof . 1959 anodised guards have appreciated more than just about anything.This has evolved into the umpteenth thread on when the "boomer market drop" happens (if at all), and whether or not young people are into vintage guitars.
I'm even younger than you, and have collected progressively older guitars since I was a teenager. Thankfully I'm not the only one, either.
A decade ago, I only knew a few others my age who were into this stuff, and it seemed like vintage guitars were an old man's hobby (especially when visiting guitar shows). Then platforms like Instagram completely changed my perspective on this, and connected younger people from around the world who are into old guitars. The vast majority on that platform (and even most on TGP) are Gen X and Millennials, not Boomers. (You can find them on Facebook...).
Don't hold your breath for the great Boomer estate sale in your imagination, it's unlikely to happen. There are more people than ever collecting vintage guitars, including many who are younger who have the expendable income to pay market prices on vintage gear too.
I’m the head of strategy for a fast-growing privately-held healthcare network, and have driven and analyzed environmental scans for decades as an executive and management consultant. I have to discuss economic trends in front of Boards and Private Equity Managing Directors annually. I had better know this stuff.50 guitar guys in a bar discuss economics
Yeah don't worry, the price of these instruments will remain inaccessible to most players even after inflation drops and so do the boomers. Just make sure you planned ahead, leaving your big ole corpse for your loved ones to deal with 'aint cool.
I’m the head of strategy for a fast-growing privately-held healthcare network, and have driven and analyzed environmental scans for decades as an executive and management consultant. I have to discuss economic trends in front of Boards and Private Equity Managing Directors annually. I had better know this stuff.
heck yeah! A lot of younger people re-discovering various old items. If they work or can be repaired, people will buy - abandon all obsolete gear and other #^$* asap.