Inflation and vintage instruments?

Hi forum minds! What will happen during the anticipated inflation? Money will loose its value, but what about collectable guitars, basses and other expensive vintage stuff? Any ideas?

 

My opinion? Don’t rush into anything expensive on a whim, don’t spend money you can’t afford to lose short term, buy what you really want and know you’re going to get a lot of use out of whether it’s worth 5k or 50 quid.

Oddly enough, this sounds like good advice pretty much regardless of the state of either the economy or one’s own finances.

 

"Experts" have been predicting the demise of the boomer generation and the fall of guitar prices for at least 15 years. It hasn't happened yet, and no one really knows if it will happen later. For instance certain eras of automobiles fall out of fashion with an aging population.

As was said, younger folks want these guitars as well, but as a group have somewhat less money to burn. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. But again, no one really knows.

I would expect that inflation will moderate in the next 6-9 months, the question is if there will be a resulting recession. And the Ukraine situation is also a wild card. Recessions are not great for collectables, remember 2008?

As was said, buy what you want to play if you want to get into this quagmire. Buy from reputable sources. And my 2 cents, as best you can, buy quality. Quality all-original pieces are more likely to hold their value and are easier to sell if necessary. That was the best piece of advice I received when I started out in the vintage thing.

Longer. Much longer.

 

Y'all need to get out more. So many young guys are into vintage guitars now, and they're just as nuts about them as I was 30 years ago.

Well, I just made a mistake speaking about "guys". Just recently talked to George Gruhn about this. He says traditionally 1 to 2% of his customers were female. Now it's more like 15 to 20%.

At the Dallas Show last week, I saw lots and lots of young folks geeking out on old guitars, more than ever. They still need to figure out that Strats and Teles are way better than Jazzmasters and Jaguars, but that will come with time.

I know who's sending me vintage guitars to work on, and it makes me feel like an old dude.

The state of the vintage guitar market is strong, and getting stronger. I'm not worried in the least. Yes, there will be corrections. But old guitars aren't going anywhere but up. I'd bet on it.

What do the kids do when they get famous and start making money? The Greta Van Fleets et al.? That's right, they go out and buy vintage guitars.

Don't worry, enjoy this stuff. It's just stuff.

 

I'm not sure what inflation is going to do with vintage guitar prices, however, a 1970 Black Stratocaster just sold today on a live auction site for USD12,250 + 18% buyers premium.

Thats a total sale price of USD14,445.00 plus shipping.

If this particular sale is anything to go by hen it doesn't appear that prices are falling right now.

I bought a pedal (Fulltone Soul Bender V1) from them and paid a 24% buyers premium..
I thought the only "deals" were on the first 50-75 items before the number of watchers increased.

 

50 guitar guys in a bar discuss economics - got to be a joke in there somewhere!

[oh, i had a degree in politics + economics decades ago - the vintage guitar market is or could be a straight supply and demand situation, but it's not, because it's not a rational market, guitars are not guns and butter.]

 

50 guitar guys in a bar discuss economics - got to be a joke in there somewhere!

[oh, i had a degree in politics + economics decades ago - the vintage guitar market is or could be a straight supply and demand situation, but it's not, because it's not a rational market, guitars are not guns and butter.]

I must admit, I try to buy sensibly and keep the economics in mind but if I stumble across a really spectacular guitar it really ends up just coming down to whether I can afford what they're asking. I'd rather make a 'bad' investment that ends up with a great guitar I'll get a lot of pleasure from than a 'good' investment in a guitar that doesn't much interest me.

 

Local Craigslist has a barely used LP TV Special for $1,900.
Gibson sells them new for $1,699.
Something ain't right

 

...Do you even understand what inflation is?...the devaluation of money....Do guitars devaluate? None of mine ever have, because I only buy old guitars that are going up in value...

Good explainer for the OP except for that little bit about only buying old guitars that go up in price. Generally, the old collectible guitars maintain their static value while the currency continues to go down, so it takes more devalued currency to buy the same old used guitar. It only seems like the old gear is getting more valuable.

Images from Venezuela, hyperinflation.

.

 

I was just thinking to myself that this thread really needs more "well, actually..." and harumphing about the Fed. Super helpful.

 

Good explainer for the OP except for that little bit about only buying old guitars that go up in price. Generally, the old collectible guitars maintain their static value while the currency continues to go down, so it takes more devalued currency to buy the same old used guitar. It only seems like the old gear is getting more valuable.

Images from Venezuela, hyperinflation.

.

Well done.

Old anecdote about hyperinflation during the Weimar era:

Guy goes to the store with a wheelbarrow full of Millionen Deutsche Mark bills to see if he can get a loaf of bread, comes back out, someone had dumped the money out and stolen the wheelbarrow.

This is a 50 Million Mark bill from that time.

Hold on to your hats people, and buy some extra noodles.

 

This has evolved into the umpteenth thread on when the "boomer market drop" happens (if at all), and whether or not young people are into vintage guitars.

I'm even younger than you, and have collected progressively older guitars since I was a teenager. Thankfully I'm not the only one, either.

A decade ago, I only knew a few others my age who were into this stuff, and it seemed like vintage guitars were an old man's hobby (especially when visiting guitar shows). Then platforms like Instagram completely changed my perspective on this, and connected younger people from around the world who are into old guitars. The vast majority on that platform (and even most on TGP) are Gen X and Millennials, not Boomers. (You can find them on Facebook...).

Don't hold your breath for the great Boomer estate sale in your imagination, it's unlikely to happen. There are more people than ever collecting vintage guitars, including many who are younger who have the expendable income to pay market prices on vintage gear too.

Yeah and you watch the space . The underdog Jazzmaster will have its day . The younger generation want something different to the Boomers who had eyes only for a Stratocaster or Telecaster . They already are influencing the Jazzmaster market . Look no further than Lemmo if you want proof . 1959 anodised guards have appreciated more than just about anything.

Kinda sorta tongue in cheek .

I agree with the earlier statements about what has been under valued and has appreciated the last two years is unlikely to go down

 

Yeah don't worry, the price of these instruments will remain inaccessible to most players even after inflation drops and so do the boomers. Just make sure you planned ahead, leaving your big ole corpse for your loved ones to deal with 'aint cool.

 

50 guitar guys in a bar discuss economics

I’m the head of strategy for a fast-growing privately-held healthcare network, and have driven and analyzed environmental scans for decades as an executive and management consultant. I have to discuss economic trends in front of Boards and Private Equity Managing Directors annually. I had better know this stuff.

 

Yeah don't worry, the price of these instruments will remain inaccessible to most players even after inflation drops and so do the boomers. Just make sure you planned ahead, leaving your big ole corpse for your loved ones to deal with 'aint cool.

Boomers this, boomers that. Cmon man. A lot of us are a lot younger and are buying vintage gear left and right.

 

I’m the head of strategy for a fast-growing privately-held healthcare network, and have driven and analyzed environmental scans for decades as an executive and management consultant. I have to discuss economic trends in front of Boards and Private Equity Managing Directors annually. I had better know this stuff.

Yeah dude but this is TGP and I’m also an expert. Now, let me tell you about the one time I played a vintage Fender and didn’t like it and why I could build a guitar just as good as any overpriced pre-cbs in my basement if I really wanted to…

 

Boomers this, boomers that. Cmon man. A lot of us are a lot younger and are buying vintage gear left and right.

It's a long time ago now but this was my highly technical research into the subject:

 

Boomers this, boomers that. Cmon man. A lot of us are a lot younger and are buying vintage gear left and right.

A lot of you are so old you believe in evolution because you were there.


I'm just being silly, i played with many teenage and college age guitarists, and they are all just as into classic rock as we were as teenagers in the 80s, and they all play tube amps, obviously or I wouldn't talk to them. Lotta fun turning them onto music I can't enjoy otherwise because it's so played out. They can't afford vintage guitars, are you nuts? I am sure they would love to get their hands on one as much as any of us.

 

I'm seeing people going nuts for vintage collectibles. As people buy and abuse the remaining old ones, any that are pristine get a very nice premium.

 

Boomers this, boomers that. Cmon man. A lot of us are a lot younger and are buying vintage gear left and right.

heck yeah! A lot of younger people re-discovering various old items. If they work or can be repaired, people will buy - abandon all obsolete gear and other #^$* asap.

 

The 10-year forecast for the boomer vintage guitar flood is real people. Stand outside with your pants rolled up and have cash in hand….they should be going for less than a reissue.