Technology in the next 20-50 years. is A.I. an actual possibility?

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by dingdongbell070, Feb 4, 2015.

  1. dingdongbell070

    dingdongbell070 Member

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    Part 1: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
    Part 2: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

    This has got to be one of the most interesting and thought provoking articles i've read in a while. If you've got some time, its definitely worth the read.

    I've always thought of A.I. as a distant science fiction narrative, never really considering the actual ramifications of what could happen if we create a computer than can teach itself.

    The basic underlying thought that "The smarter something is, the faster it can increase its own intellect" has HUGE EXPONENTIAL ramifications.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2015
  2. slybird

    slybird Member

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    I don't think real AI will happen in 50 years. I do think machines will be able to pass Turing Test within the next 50 years. I also don't think the majority of the world's current workforce with be able to retool fast enough for the changes we are about to face. For the long term (100+ years) I am optimistic about the outcome of current creative destruction trends.
     
  3. GCDEF

    GCDEF Supporting Member

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    I'm not going to read the articles, but computers can already teach themselves. That's been going on for a while. They're still just machines that do what we tell them, and they're going to be for the foreseeable future. I don't see any kind of scenario where they think they're smarter than people and try to take over the world.
     
  4. raph

    raph Member

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    It's going to be like digital audio emulations of tube amps. The people who sell it are going to keep promising the latest version is the most lifelike ever year after year after year.
     
  5. tiktok

    tiktok Supporting Member

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  6. teledude55

    teledude55 Member

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    eventually we'll all lay in bed all day while our personal robots do the work in society. Wall-E was prophetic.
     
  7. catpeople

    catpeople Senior Member

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    AI has been 10 years away for 50 years.
     
  8. twoheadedboy

    twoheadedboy Member

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    I work in neuroscience, and I study this stuff for a living. In my opinion, we are quite far away from being able to replicate human intelligence artificially (definitely more than 20 years away, probably more than 50). We can build machines that mimic human behavior in a very circumscribed manner, but building a machine that has the ability to learn, organize and reorganize itself as the human mind can do is a very different matter. For example, think for a moment about all the different decisions that people make about what to do with their lives, and what they might base those decisions on. How could we possibly build a machine that would make a decision about what to do with itself in the way that a human would? At this point, I don't think anyone even knows where to start.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2015
  9. neoprimitive

    neoprimitive Member

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    if real AI and robots ever become a reality we are doomed. Stephen Hawking agrees. never trust a robot. and if robots get AI and learn how to build themselves, we are in a world of trouble.
     
  10. bgmacaw

    bgmacaw Member

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    I'll start worrying when the robots ask "Are you alive?" or say "I'll be back."
     
  11. Dr. Tweedbucket

    Dr. Tweedbucket Deluxe model available !!!11

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    Yeah, maybe the Terminator theme wasn't so far fetched after all? :cry:
     
  12. C-4

    C-4 Member

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    AI is being discussed in another current thread about Brian Williams. It don't get no mo' artificial the Brian.
     
  13. GCDEF

    GCDEF Supporting Member

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    They won't do that unless we design them to. Even if they do, it shouldn't be too difficult to isolate them from their power source.
     
  14. stratovarius

    stratovarius Supporting Member

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    I am sure we will be amazed by future technology, but the doomsday scenarios envisioned by popular culture seem pretty silly to me. I do see a lot of value in thinking about such things, though. Hopefully, we will begin by challenging our assumptions about the nature of intelligence, consciousness, self-awareness and the human will.

    One interesting aspect of artificial intelligence that I have pondered is whether or not the architecture of computers is fundamentally adapted to the sort of processing done by the brain. I have not kept up with the science, but it seems that the brain is able to do a sort of holographic processing that is quite different than simply crunching vast amounts of data in a linear fashion as done by computers.
     
  15. Nurk2

    Nurk2 "Ignore Everybody" ~Hugh MacLeod

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    Agreed. You need to understand that the machine on your desk has the same level of sentience as your toaster.
     
  16. kcprogguitar

    kcprogguitar Member

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    Understanding that the decision making would be human influenced, having been created by humans, the real question to me is, would the AI learn to NOT think like a human, and think for itself? Is that good or bad?
     
  17. pickaguitar

    pickaguitar 2011 TGP Silver Medalist Silver Supporting Member

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    I can't wait to not work...I have so much I'd rather be doing with my limited time


    The folks in the future have it made! They'll say...'remember when folks used to have to work to live'. 'Yea I can't imagine'
     
  18. Route234

    Route234 Member

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    They dont seem silly to Bill Gates.

    People didnt see the Internet coming until long after it was working and existed.

    AI will absolutely happen since every single day people are working on replacing humans with computers for any number of things. I think its incredibly naive to bet against humans for getting **** done. Our track record is pretty damned good. We dont have the flying cars and the robot maids like the Jetsons predicted but we have all kinds of things no one could ever have imagined just 50 years ago.

    Who knows really, but Im not betting against this technology existing with all that Ive seen in my lifetime.
     
  19. Bozak

    Bozak Member

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    I don't really believe AI will ever exist, beyond what we already have- machines running programs.
     

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