TGP Investors club

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by Che_Guitarra, May 24, 2015.

  1. Che_Guitarra

    Che_Guitarra Member

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    So share traders of TGP - what are your stock market predictions for the rest of 2015? And what hot tips do you have to offer?

    I got into shares about 18 months ago, investing in tech/online consumer trends i'm observing. So far, so good - i'm 250% up on my initial investment! Beginners luck, but i'll take it while I can.

    I get the feeling my dumb-luck investment strategy is about to get a shake-down from larger market forces. Based on the monumental share price upsurge i've observed since the start of the year, combined with the avalanche of doomsday market analysis i'm reading, my take-away sentiment is that we're due to take a big correctional hit... we're just waiting for a trigger event to begin the precipitation.

    What say you? And what are your investment strategies if the market clicks into a downward spiral?
     
  2. Che_Guitarra

    Che_Guitarra Member

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    Bump... surely a few share marketeers on TGP :dunno
     
  3. D Rock

    D Rock Member

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    Id just hedge your risky tech stocks against something safe and stable like gold and silver. That way if/when the bottom drops out you aren't left trying to hold your trousers up.
     
  4. tonyhay

    tonyhay Supporting Member

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    I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, but gold and silver aren't 'safe and stable'. I can tell you this from personal experience...
    Cash (or equivalent) is safe and stable.
     
  5. sausagefingers

    sausagefingers Supporting Member

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    I'll stick to pros running mutual funds, or even better ETFs and index funds.

    We're in a but of a weird run lately with zero interest rates and stocks climbing steadily. Not sure at all what that means, but I enjoy checking my balances lately.
     
  6. AZChilicat

    AZChilicat Member

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    The thing to remember is that 38 of the last five market corrections were accurately predicted.

    I've also not noted any monumental share price upsurge YTD.
     
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  7. hamstrat

    hamstrat Member

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    This has been an odd year for investing. To listen to news reports one would think the markets are booming, new all time highs, etc. But overall the YTD gains have been rather small and this market seems to lack confidence. The Fed will raise rates this year, which shouldn't really make much difference, but some heavy selling may ensue . .

    For the first time since the recession I've lowered my equities position and probably will continue to do so for awhile longer. My thinking is to be able to buy on a 10-20% correction. I'm batting about 50% doing this in the past so I won't go more than 50% out. My dilemma is: bonds or cash?
     
  8. D Rock

    D Rock Member

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    Cash is also being printed every day and inflation is a huge factor here. With the FED keeping the rates low right now, you may be right, but that won't last forever. Mark my words, Gold and Silver will make another run in the next 5 years. By buying gold and silver you are betting against inflation, but I do understand most don't want to be left with a lot of money in gold and silver while the market is making a run. Over the long term, you will not find anything safer, look up the 100 year gold charts, hell some countries don't even last 100 years, much less their currencies.
     
  9. AZChilicat

    AZChilicat Member

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    Inflation is a huge factor? Umm, we've been battling deflationary pressures. Last I paid any attention was in March and we actually did have negative inflation Y/Y.
     
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  10. o0Ampy0o

    o0Ampy0o Member

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    My expertise is finding stocks that tank as soon as I invest in them.
     
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  11. RLD

    RLD Member

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    Short them and you'll be set.
     
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  12. bgmacaw

    bgmacaw Member

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    Watch out for fewer large scale commercial/retail construction starts this summer and fall. Smaller new builds and remodels of smaller properties will predominate.
     
  13. D Rock

    D Rock Member

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    You are looking short term, most tend to invest for the long term. Considering that dollar's value has been cut IN HALF since 1988, I would say yes, inflation is a huge factor.
     
  14. AZChilicat

    AZChilicat Member

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    So I introduce facts contrary to your assertion and now I am guilty of short term thinking? Gotcha. Also, you do realize mild inflation is not a bad thing whereas deflation is? You see, your observation is only meaningful is inflation only hit costs, but that's not the case.

    Gold bugs are always interesting people to discuss investing with.
     
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  15. Jon C

    Jon C Silver Supporting Member

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    Gold, stable? It went through a huge decline (35-50% or more dep on which fund) over a 3 yr period... :eek:
     
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  16. AZChilicat

    AZChilicat Member

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    But, dood, it's got REAL value...you gotta think long term.
     
  17. Che_Guitarra

    Che_Guitarra Member

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    Perhaps just my focal area of investment then. AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, SNE... all these stocks have virtually doubled in price since the start of the year.
     
  18. AZChilicat

    AZChilicat Member

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    AAPL no where near doubled: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=aapl&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19

    Same with AMZN: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=amzn&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19

    NFLX, yes, but I've read they might be entering China so that's probably fueling investor hype.

    Sony up only 50%, a long way from doubling, but it's gone through about a decade long turn around and it's finally bearing fruit, so there's basically a structural/fundamental reason for this.
     
  19. Jon C

    Jon C Silver Supporting Member

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    :cool:
     
  20. DustyRhodesJr

    DustyRhodesJr Supporting Member

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    I have always had great luck with mutual funds that primarily invest in small and/or tech
    companies.

    I did buy Amazon stock in 2000, that was probably my single best-ever purchase.

    I never try to predict what is coming with the market, it is always better to be in than out
    except for a few times in history. I am not smart enough to know when those times to get out
    are.
     

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