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There's no way this refinished '64 Strat sold for that price...

Spider-Man

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
5,787
... is there?

https://reverb.com/item/46374924-1964-fender-stratocaster?show_sold=true

I'm not commenting on the dealer, they get fantastic guitars and I really like their videos. I would not hesitate to contact them if I were looking at a guitar they have available. But that's absurd for a refinished '64 Strat.

Conventional wisdom has been that a refinished Fender is worth about 50% of a sunburst regardless of what the original finish may have been. I've seen dealers state "a refin is a refin" and "once the original finish is gone it doesn't matter what it was previously, it's a refin now" more than once.

It seems that we are seeing a shift in value of refinished Fenders. They are no longer going for 50% of the price of an all original sunburst example. More like 75-80% of over the last couple years. This is clearly an outlier, going for more than an all-original sunburst.

Or is it?
 

slimdave

Member
Messages
801
Would you pay 75-80% value for a refinished guitar?
I wouldn’t. For that small difference I’d rather go for an example with original finish.
And I don’t have anything against refinished guiarse. I actually like them a lot when they’re priced right.
 

Spider-Man

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
5,787
No, I wouldn't pay that much. But watching Fender's closely over the last couple years and what people are paying for refinished instrument has seemingly gone up quite a bit. I have a body-only refinished '58 Esquire that I got for about 50% of the going rate of an all-original example so I don't have anything against refinished instruments either.
 

slimdave

Member
Messages
801
Maybe it’s the tendency right now. Everything is crazy expensive and if you want it, you have to pay for it... I don’t know, I don’t get.

Ah, and ECG were always on the very very high side.
 

sws1

Member
Messages
12,232
I haven't been clicking many link for vintage guitar recently, simply because I knew things would be bubble priced.

However, the last 3 or 4 I looked at left me dumbfounded.
e.g., $9k for a refinished LP Special that has no original parts and has numerous wood grafts on the top to fix a bunch of holes and routes.
 

Fitzer

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
2,853
I think there’s a subset of the vintage buying market that does not watch values and track the market to know what they should probably pay. People do just buy stuff like this without much knowledge. They like vintage and find a cool old guitar that speaks to them, so they just buy it at a reputable place. Maybe that happened here.

EDIT: saw that listing was pulled down and that it didn’t sell on reverb. They took less for it in person. $15k-ish less, like real market value? Who knows.
 

jvin248

Member
Messages
6,442
.

Buyers throw caution to the wind when the market is topping.

However, some are desperately trying to convert inflating dollars into other assets before the hyperinflation ramp takes off.
Here is Venezuela and how many stacks it takes to purchase common items. As well as the method of counting.




That new 7,000 page bill out there that promises taxing 'unrealized gains' .... might not see investment-grade guitars?


.
 

crashbelt

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
451
I happily play a refin 53 blackguard and a refin 61 LP/SG Standard - great to gig with no worries.

But I'll never pay more than 50% of the market value of an original finish. Maybe the market has moved permanently to a much higher percentage for a quality refin or maybe it will come back towards 50% in the future. Who knows, but its not a risk I'm up for (admittedly that's easier to say when you already have a good stable of original finish and refin guitars;))
 

JeffHaddad

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
671
Either the percentage value of a refin has gone up, or '64 Strats are worth $60k now. Either way, it's eye-watering!

For that kind of money I hope the buyer received more pictures and a more thorough description than what I see in the link.
 

John Quinn

Gold Supporting Member
Messages
3,635
... is there?

https://reverb.com/item/46374924-1964-fender-stratocaster?show_sold=true

I'm not commenting on the dealer, they get fantastic guitars and I really like their videos. I would not hesitate to contact them if I were looking at a guitar they have available. But that's absurd for a refinished '64 Strat.

Conventional wisdom has been that a refinished Fender is worth about 50% of a sunburst regardless of what the original finish may have been. I've seen dealers state "a refin is a refin" and "once the original finish is gone it doesn't matter what it was previously, it's a refin now" more than once.

It seems that we are seeing a shift in value of refinished Fenders. They are no longer going for 50% of the price of an all original sunburst example. More like 75-80% of over the last couple years. This is clearly an outlier, going for more than an all-original sunburst.

Or is it?

The Price of Fender Vintage Guitars has been all over the map - that said this seller is dreaming - unless the guitar was refinished at the Fender Factory back in 64 or 65 - this refinish halves the value.
 

Adam Zaiger

Member
Messages
453
Wow. Not sure if that’s the actual selling price, but if refins are going for even $20k that’s astounding. That said, it’s easy to see why refins are crossing over the $10k mark because that’s not too far over Masterbuilt pricing. Then if you apply the 50% rule the original finish guitars from that period are going for over $20k (where pre-Covid they were in the $12-15k range). With so many refins around I think they may have driven this price change and not vice versa.
 

sws1

Member
Messages
12,232
.

Buyers throw caution to the wind when the market is topping.

However, some are desperately trying to convert inflating dollars into other assets before the hyperinflation ramp takes off.
Here is Venezuela and how many stacks it takes to purchase common items. As well as the method of counting.




That new 7,000 page bill out there that promises taxing 'unrealized gains' .... might not see investment-grade guitars?


.
Oh yeah - Makes sense. Billionaires are moving their money into refinished strats.


Illogical.
 
Messages
5,706
There’s a 1960 refin for sale on another forum for £15000 which is $20000. I have no idea how that person got to that valuation or why anyone would buy that guitar for that price. Knock about 40%-50% off about might be in the right ballpark.

If this is the way things are going it’s time to start thinking about shifting my 64, but I think people are just trying their luck.
 

Laurent Brondel

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
3,435
You know we are in a bubble and in the midst of irrationality.

I said it before, but mid '60s Strats are not exactly super rare items, especially refins.
I understand more the recent adjustment regarding pre '65 3x5's prices, which are much rarer.

Also, the selling shop is a great example of how absurd this market has become: they have re-branded themselves into a lifestyle thing with lavish and cringe YT videos, they're not the only ones.
I know, I'm a curmudgeon, but still…
 

rizla

Member
Messages
813
I wouldnt have thought it wouldve.
I just sold a 65 in reasonable/nice original condition, and spent time getting an understanding of the current market before listing.
If someone paid that, good luck to them, they mustve really liked it.
 

Jayyj

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
10,192
I think the value of player grade gear tends to be quite sensitive to supply and demand, so I suspect what we're seeing is a lack of supply which still feels strangely low. If there's a bunch of refinished examples on the market then sellers will be need to be competitive against each other to move their guitar reasonably quickly, if yours is the only one then you need only be cheaper than a no issues example and someone will bite.

Most of the well known dealers I follow have been pricing around 60-65% on decent looking refins and that's not something I'd only associate with covid weirdness, it feels too me like it's been that way a while? I wonder if it's a generational thing that refins were a tough sell 20 years ago but younger guys are more forgiving of? Either way, nowadays I'd expect a refinished guitar selling through a dealer priced at 50% of book value to either be a badly done one or a guitar with other issues on top.
 

Laurent Brondel

Silver Supporting Member
Messages
3,435
To make my point about the non-scarcity of mid '60s Strats ('64 to '66): 75 on reverb as of today.
Only 18 ES-335's from '64 to '66.
Granted, those numbers fluctuate a bit but are pretty representative, and keep in mind that in '66 Gibson was making a lot of guitars, as other US manufacturers riding the folk/rock/Beatles boom.

I wonder if it's a generational thing that refins were a tough sell 20 years ago but younger guys are more forgiving of?
Maybe, refins used to be the only entry point for people not endowed with enough cash, it's not quite but almost a moot point now.
Note on the links above the wide price range for similar guitars, obviously some guys are not in a hurry to sell and are determined to ride the crazy wave.
Somebody wrote this before on this forum (forgive me if I don't remember who), but I think FOMO is a big part of all this, with a sudden surge of vintage buyers with little to no knowledge willing to spend cash on almost any "vintage" guitar.
My point above is also that inventory seems to be a much lesser issue now than a year ago.
 




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