What do you think the used guitar market will look like in 3-6 months?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Messages
3,156
So watching the state of the U.S economy from here in NZ, things look pretty dire (and tbh they look pretty worrying here too). I'm got my eye on one or two used Les Pauls in the US but currently don't have the dollars however I'm thinking it's a fairly good bet that prices are headed for quite the dip soon enough.

How do you think things will play out here?
 

Highnumbers

Member
Messages
630
I wouldn't bet the farm on that...

Used and vintage guitar sales have been quite strong the past few months, economics and covid be-damned. Many shops are having a hard time keeping used inventory in, as people are stuck at home bored and buying gear. It's been easier to sell guitars online over the past few months than it was a year ago.

That might change in a few months when things are reopening and people are no longer receiving additional unemployment benefits in this country, but I wouldn't entirely bet on that. Prices may not really dip, but inventory may go up slightly.

EDIT: Here's a thread with 11-pages in 24 hours all about new acquisitions during Covid: https://www.thegearpage.net/board/index.php?threads/post-your-covid-acquisitions-ngd.2172562/
 

NortheastHick

Supporting Member
Messages
6,486
I have some friends that bought Custom Shop Les Paul's 10 to 15 years ago thinking they were going to go up in value.
So far they've lost over half their value and it ain't going back up anytime soon. I think we had a little bit of bump with the stimulus and the generous unemployment package from covid. But that's running a bit thin now.
 
Messages
3,156
Lets hope thinks get worse so there’s lots of cheap les Paul’s
Well if you economy goes and ours goes buying a guitar will be the least of your to do list

let hope the whole world gets better soon
Bit of a difference between hoping the U.S economy gets worse and being willing to look for silver linings if it does. Even China's recovery is probably fake given their firm output doesn't match the GDP growth they are claiming, I don't see the global economy recovering so soon.
 
Messages
3,883
So watching the state of the U.S economy from here in NZ, things look pretty dire (and tbh they look pretty worrying here too). I'm got my eye on one or two used Les Pauls in the US but currently don't have the dollars however I'm thinking it's a fairly good bet that prices are headed for quite the dip soon enough.

How do you think things will play out here?
I don't think it is possible to predict ANYTHING with any kind of certainty. I've been downsizing my guitar stable a bit (just had a few too many similar guitars collecting dust and decided they deserved to be played) and originally thought I'd have a LOT of trouble moving 4-5 guitars given that millions of people are out of work and things are fairly dire here. Sold them all in less than a two week period for full asking price. Where we go from here is anyone's guess and depends on so many factors (some of which aren't really even under our control) that I think doing any Nostradamus-ing here is a fool's errand.
 

gillman royce

Supporting Member
Messages
3,200
Not substantially different. Even if the economy is way downhill or something else is going on, $4000 guitars are not going to be marked down to $2500 all of a sudden.
Unless it's a private sale & the seller needs the $$ but I agree with you - wait a year and then let's see what happens. I don't expect a Covid solution before 2022.
 

toomanyamps

Member
Messages
1,757
It will be at least 2 more years before COVID is a memory here in the US - and along the way, lots of businesses are going to slowly fail. As rent moratoriums run out without new jobs to fill the gap, homelessness and serious poverty will expand. The used market will likely get more bloated as more people try to sell the guitars to pay rent and food. I have seen this in my own life as divorces suddenly changed my financial status and I had to get rid of gear and guitars to pay essential bills. Only now, the loss in businesses and jobs will be everywhere and the effects will be bad. You NZ folks handled the pandemic well - immediately respond, contact trace the rare outbreaks, and quarantine. Congratulations! Not so sure about the rest of the world. And what happens if ANOTHER novel virus breaks out?
The flip side is the people who still have jobs won't be spending money on vacations or eating out so they may just decide to buy the guitar they always wanted.
 

RC Mike

Member
Messages
227
Kind of depends on which part of the guitar market you’re shopping. As folks experience distress and sell, its likely the low-end market will get flooded. Better guitars? Not so soon, but perhaps.
 

ClickClack

Member
Messages
187
A callous, self-centered cynic might hypothesize that however the used guitar market looks in 6 months will depend on how many grieving families are selling the guitars of the loved ones they have lost to this accursed pandemic.
:messedup
I am not such a person, but I can easily imagine someone thinking that way.
 
Messages
123
The people who think this is no big deal and that it's something that only affects unhealthy people are not paying attention and the ones that think it's no different than the flu aren't to bright either. What part of C19 causes life long damage for some people, yes even the healthy ones and there is no way of telling if one is going to be harmed or not until they get it don't you understand? Do you people also realize that there are folks out there that have no idea if they have a condition that makes them more likely to die if they catch the virus? Are you people experts, because I'm betting most of you are armchair quarterbacks. Do most of you realize that we are learning new things about C19 daily and that a new study suggests that embryos could be susceptible to C19? Stop with the nonsense deniers, you people are making things worse, not better. Why is it so hard to just be cautious?
The only consolation is that the vast majority of people get this. The vocal minority is still vocal, but shrinking.
 

jvin248

Member
Messages
4,668
.

Last recession ... it took a Couple of YEARS for guitar prices to come down. There's a long lag, or friction, in selling gear -- because people do whatever they can before selling their favorite $5,000 guitar for $500 to GC/Pawnshop/CL/etc. There are more divorce-damaged and girlfriend 'hammer tops' hitting the market before fire sales of good instruments. There will be the unicorn finds that pop up on the forums but in general ... take whatever period you think prices should drop, double that, and you might be on the leading edge.

In the meantime, the factories are bumping new guitar prices by $50 to $100 a couple of times ... and the fire sale prices are not quite as low as we remember they were the last time.

.
 

John Quinn

Member
Messages
931
So watching the state of the U.S economy from here in NZ, things look pretty dire (and tbh they look pretty worrying here too). I'm got my eye on one or two used Les Pauls in the US but currently don't have the dollars however I'm thinking it's a fairly good bet that prices are headed for quite the dip soon enough.

How do you think things will play out here?
 

Yamaha 350

Member
Messages
6,631
You will try to get or sell a used guitar and get this. This means no money. Their money will dry up. And so no money for guitars. :(

 
Messages
5,293
So watching the state of the U.S economy from here in NZ, things look pretty dire (and tbh they look pretty worrying here too). I'm got my eye on one or two used Les Pauls in the US but currently don't have the dollars however I'm thinking it's a fairly good bet that prices are headed for quite the dip soon enough.

How do you think things will play out here?
Wishful thinking at best. Realistically, you're going to be waiting a long time. Guitar prices will not dip anytime soon, if at all. These aren't stocks we're talking about. Guitar prices have always been on an incline.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.




Top