What gets cheap when the boomer selloff happens?

Discussion in 'Guitars in General' started by doc, Oct 15, 2019.

  1. offroadguitarnewb

    offroadguitarnewb Member

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    i think this is accurate. speaking as a 26 year old millenial with no student debt and an average job (aka were broke, also not taking money from my parents like the majority? of millenials do..), realizing how many guitars there really are in circulation, the vintage market will be its own niche but not the big blow up people are expecting


    i agree with this too, as technology gets smaller better etc nobody is going to want a massive cabinet unless they are doing large scale productions at which point they would most likely by newer stuff anyways since it would be an investment at that point. maybe movie makers looking for a 60s/70s set?



    this too is probably accurate as well. i just keep thinking about the walls of guitars inside guitar center down in phoenix. then the several music stores we have here and there wall of guitars.

    those are the ones we will see at a good price in X amount of time, which would make sense to me to be the case for vintage gear from the 70s or 60s in todays market, just that plethura of guitars. its not gonna be this huge frenzy as many have said already. i would think it to be maybe a jump but not a frenzy.

    all this said by me and others, there is ALOT more to consider. baby boomers was a HUGE generation of people that dominate i would say, for now anyways, the majority of important positions in all sectors (i would also add to that the policies set in place now began with baby boomers and there parents), second obviously to gen x who is starting to take the reins. there will be a whirlwind of changes, politically etc. guitars will be a drop in the pond

    additionally i agree with those who have said to check estate sales, thats where you'll find the best deals, craigslist also, ebay if your fast enough.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  2. Highnumbers

    Highnumbers Member

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    In my humble opinion - people in this thread aren't considering the celebrity factor.

    The single biggest factor for values is a particular instrument's association with a high-profile artist. You need no more proof than looking at the market for Clapton-spec stoptail 335s (or anything Clapton-spec, for that matter), or Beatle guitars like the Casino, Gretsch Duo-Jet, Rickenbacker 12-string etc.

    When boomers liquidate gear and kick the bucket, which artists from the boomer generation won't appeal to Gen X and Millennials enough to maintain prices?

    Even with the multi-generational appeal of the Beatles, I don't see people paying a ton for a Harrison-spec Duo Jet or Country Gent in the future. Or basically any Rickenbacker (even the 12-string). How about even more Boomer-specific acts like The Ventures? I highly doubt a Mosrite Ventures model will maintain its value in 20 years, and even less so for more obscure Mosrite models. How about a Barney Kessel model Gibson? (The Trini Lopez standard is only collectible because of Dave Grohl!) Most of this stuff will be ancient history to buyers in 20 years.

    I think the blue chip vintage stuff will hold its value fairly well, but buyers will be more discerning about condition. Less popular vintage stuff will tank in price, and the over-saturated market of reissues and Custom Shop stuff will get generally less expensive as used gear (and not collectibles).

    Somebody should start a poll for ages of TGP members. I'm 35 and it seems the crowd here is generally younger than the folks that frequent most guitar shows and shops. Curious if this is skewing our perceptions...
     
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  3. Codyyy

    Codyyy Supporting Member

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    I don’t think boomers will need to sell anything but rather leave it to their trust or inheritance. They already have the stuff, and likely the money. Chances are their retirements are steady enough to where they don’t need to offload gear for pennies on the dollar to help pay for emergency funding. Their kids may sell it instead of holding onto it but with the internet and various other resources I highly doubt they’ll just give it away without doing research. Anything I find I research value and other deciding factors before I go to buy or sell, not just guitars but just about anything tangible.
     
  4. daacrusher2001

    daacrusher2001 Silver Supporting Member

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    I don't have any vintage gear but do have 5 nice guitars and a couple of nice amps. By the time I'd want to sell them they'll be vintage. Call me in 30 years, if I can still hear, I'll answer and maybe make you a deal. In the meantime, buy something and play it...or waste 30 years waiting to save $100
     
  5. Benny

    Benny Gold Supporting Member

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    It would be nice to see "player-grade" classic guitars get down to more player-friendly prices, but yeah - I think you're right that sellers are going to take increasing hits on pieces that outside of the most desired specs and condition.
     
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  6. fjrabon

    fjrabon Member

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    I think you’re wildly overestimating the financial security of the baby boomers. They were, by and large, the “buy a gigantic house, fancy car and expensive things on credit” generation. They have 401Ks that don’t really support their lifestyle. I say this as somebody who worked in the financial sector for a long time.
     
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  7. tiktok

    tiktok Supporting Member

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    When the “sell off” happens, the asking prices will be in water, ammo and antibiotics.
     
  8. Codyyy

    Codyyy Supporting Member

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    I probably am overestimating as I’m a few generations newer than the boomers. Either way I can’t afford anything from their generation save for the Elvis collectible mug set. I’ve tried and failed many times.

    Regardless I’m not holding my breath and thinking in the near future I’ll score a ‘50s Strat for the same price as a Squier.
     
  9. David B

    David B Silver Supporting Member

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    When I read all these younger gear buyers absolutely salivating about "when the boomers die I am buying their guitars cheap!", don't they realize, if they are salivating, then there's a gazillion more of you waiting to "buy it all cheap"? Which standards to reason, with everyone wanting to "buy", that the price could stay the same or go high, because "buy".

    What if everyone got tired of playing WOW at the same time?:D:D
     
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  10. Bossanova

    Bossanova Silver Supporting Member

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    It’s a shrinking pool of interest, so it would make sense that they’d only want clean, no stories examples.

    I’m sure the reissues will drop some, but they’re still in many cases preferable to many than beat up old examples. I mean, a new R9 is more valuable and arguably better than any LP built after 1961.

    335s after 1965 have very narrow nuts, and Fenders drop quite a bit after the CBS takeover.
     
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  11. stormin1155

    stormin1155 Member

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    A friend of mine deals a lot in vintage gear (LawmanGuitars.com), and he is quite optimistic about the future of vintage gear. For one thing, he is selling a lot more overseas, particularly Japan and Europe. My theory is that the international market will pick up whatever the US boomer drop-off might be.
     
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  12. frijoleghost

    frijoleghost Supporting Member

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  13. skydog

    skydog Supporting Member

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    BB = BurstBucker?
     
  14. skydog

    skydog Supporting Member

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    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
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  15. guitardirky

    guitardirky Supporting Member

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    Baby Boomer.
     
  16. skydog

    skydog Supporting Member

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    Yeah…thanks.
     
  17. uitar99

    uitar99 Member

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    I know one thing..I'm 66, closer to the end, than the beginning...when the time comes (and I hope it's on the 17th fairway) I won't give a crap about how much my gear sells for.
     
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  18. pattste

    pattste Member

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    The really collectable stuff will remain so because of its historical significance and rarity. Generally speaking, production guitars (and that includes the so-called Custom Shop instruments from companies like Gibson) from the 80's onward will never be collectable simply because there are thousands upon thousands of them and they keep producing more all the time. Production guitars from the 70's won't be collectable for the same reason and also because most of them are mediocre instruments at best.
     
  19. Jayyj

    Jayyj Supporting Member

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    Late 60s 335s have been one of the biggest growth areas in vintage guitars over the last ten years though - they've more than doubled where early 60s have stayed pretty much where they were. I think there's a real push back against the old 'too narrow to be playable' narrative that kept them depressed when the boomers were driving the market. I'm not sure they'll continue to go up, unless the overall 335 market does, but they've certainly had a bit of a re-evaluation.

    Again though, 70s production guitars have increased in value dramatically over the last ten years and it's primarily Xrs rather than boomers driving the market for them, so it's unlikely a mass boomer sell off - if it comes - is going to depress 70s Gibson and Fender prices by a huge margin. Mediocre is subjective - a lot of us that like 70s guitars got into them when we were teenagers in the 90s because they were dirt cheap because the generation above us seemed to hate them so much, so we bought them, cut our teeth on them and now look back fondly on them.
     

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