What gets cheap when the boomer selloff happens?

Discussion in 'Guitars in General' started by doc, Oct 15, 2019.

  1. Bossanova

    Bossanova Silver Supporting Member

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    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
  2. Bassopotamus

    Bassopotamus Member

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    One of the three greatest basses I've ever played was a refinished 63 or 64 J, but I agree, alot of those were not fantastic instruments. I've never encountered a bad 60s fender bass (but they weren't all magic) but have encounctered some objectively bad 70s ones. In general, I think bass players have been less vintage focused than guitar players anyway. There have been a lot of innovations in basses that are pretty widely embraced, even if they aren't required. Heck, I'm not sure I'd gig a passive bass at this point. It's just so handy to have the tone controls at my fingertips
     
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  3. COYS

    COYS Supporting Member

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    The only thing that one has going for it is that there's no headstock break... finding an early SG without a headstock break is something, but not one bit of that guitar is original otherwise. Seems like a white elephant to me.
     
  4. DeSolo

    DeSolo Silver Supporting Member

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    When this boomer goes, all of my guitars will stay in the family - I taught my kids to play and they are teaching theirs.
     
  5. FokenBusker

    FokenBusker Member

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    I am all about this oversupply in the market. It is so, so easy to score a good deal now. I bought a TEISCO Del Ray Tulip ET-210 in the original case for $150 back in 2013. I bought a Roland Cube 60 (original 80's orange) in 2017 for $450.

    Heck, in 2015 I bought a Saturn 410 'fake lefty' for $50.

    I'm looking forward to seeing an SSS style Squier Strat for some stupidly cheap price. Won't hold my breath, but hey, a millennial can dream, right? After all, I've been told by many a person that dreaming's all we're good for. ;)
     
  6. xmd5a

    xmd5a Member

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    I don't know if this has been said or not, but I'd say from personal experience, that when the boomers die, the market will mostly see more cheap instruments. Most of the guitar playing boomers I know have a collection of cheaper guitars they've acquired over the years, from old Grecos to modern MIMs. People buy a lot of cheap guitars now, and boomers were buying a lot of cheap guitars back in their day, and lot of them are recent acquisitions. They get gas like everyone else, but on a limited retirement income, they've been going for lower priced options. A lot of their guitars are not in "like new" condition after years of handling, so the used market will might out, and they won't compete much with the new market.

    This is probably closer to the truth about what a boomer's guitar collection looks like:
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Bluzeboy

    Bluzeboy Gold Supporting Member

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  8. guitararmy

    guitararmy Member

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    It will be raining PRS guitars...
     
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  9. motokev

    motokev Member

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    I agree, boomers (like my self) will SELL way before departure. We need $$$$ for the medical bills and rising insurance premiums.

    AND, I'm sure if the boomers decide to keep until departure, they will inform the beneficiaries of the value.

    i.e. Don't get too excited......
     
  10. eclecto-acoustic

    eclecto-acoustic Supporting Member

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    The things that get cheap won't be the things I'm looking for.

    Unless boomers are a bunch of closeted headless guitar fanatics and own mixers that can do stuff that only modern DJ decks can.
     
  11. Dasein

    Dasein Member

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    The deals will start happening (and already are) when late childless boomers start dying and their stuff gets liquidated at garage sales and estate sales by wives.... Lots of Gen X'ers will start inheriting their father's gear -- portions of these will be quickly pawned off to fuel meth and opioid addictions..... so you'll see lots of quick turnover in dubious places -- many of these instruments will be lost to time during these exchanges - get damaged/lost/destroyed.... Other Gen x'ers will be dumping them on the market to pay for their kid's college and their own medical debts..... plus the throw away economy will erode the value of old vs new. There of course will be a small market for collectors - and lots of indie kids and hipsters (and millennials) will flip them at low margin in a perpetual cycle of acquisition, use, and sell-off....

    I just turned 50 -- childless -- 15 nieces and nephews -- only 2 guitar players in the group (ages 16-35), and one is a lefty so they are SOL --- already losing sleep over the idea of who will inherit my guitars and my boogie....
     
  12. Bossanova

    Bossanova Silver Supporting Member

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    Also, seen at my local guitar store:

    Danocaster Jag: $4,300
    and
    1965 Fender Jaguar: $4,200
     
  13. Dasein

    Dasein Member

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    Wow -- what an amazing photo -- in the furnace room of a basement to boot!
     
  14. Bossanova

    Bossanova Silver Supporting Member

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    I'm available for adoption :aok
     
  15. DiPa

    DiPa Constant GAS Silver Supporting Member

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    Exactly, I would not hold my breath.
     
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  16. Anacharsis

    Anacharsis Supporting Member

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    I mean used, not new, in those categories, to be clear.

    And I think that used, the resale on these sorts of items hasn't been strong in years. The problem will be that the reputation just isn't there. Eventually, the company won't be, either. They are not likely to be bought by a 21st century version of CBS or Norlin or Korg. And the sheer number of these smaller manufacturers means you'll have to be an avid hobbyist in order to seek them out.

    I feel like this is already happening, as I watched a Bogner Shiva sit for months on Craigslist this year, at what once would have been an unthinkably low price. You can already get other former companies' gear at pretty low prices now that they no longer get buzz. That won't get better.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
  17. Dasein

    Dasein Member

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    lol --- I have a mint fully load Mesa Boogie MkIIC+ hardwood combo - my niece and nephew who both play just go "huh" when I try to get them excited about it.....
     
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  18. MichaelDCarter

    MichaelDCarter Member

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    Likely nothing. Guitar values, outside a few models from very few years, are low. The internet has made the general guitar market plentiful for buyers in a historic fashion. There are more quality guitars being sold by a larger number of manufactures, at lower costs that ever. Fender seems to be introducing models weekly. None of this predicts that instruments will appreciate in value

    I've kept some 60s strats and a few very limited production Gibson and Fenders with the hope that in a few decades one or more has appreciated in value, but I have not put that hope in those financial plans. The market will continue to have isolated demand peaks after the next flavor of the months surfaces with a specific make and model that was previously insignificant. And for a short time thereafter, if you own one you can sell it for a profit. For the most part if you buy a collectable guitar you should hope it doesn't lose value, and it if goes the other way just be thankful in your luck. Now if this new Hendrix box set causes a new generation of people with discretionary income to desire vintage 60s strats I may end up smiling after all. But's that just wishful thinking. There are still plenty of them available on the market on any given day.

    If you are willing to lay down high 5 figures or more per instrument there are areas where you can reasonably expect some appreciation. Whether that would meet or surpass sS&P 500 index funds over a set time period remains to be seen. Just don't mistakenly assume all guitar markets, even for guitars of limited numbers, necessarily behave like late 50s bursts did in recent years.
     
  19. gillman royce

    gillman royce Member

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    Amps scare me a lot more than guitars - I gig primarily 60s Gibson ESs and frankly I think they'll outlive me, but I'd worry about buying an amp that was original and needed to stay that way to maintain value.[/QUOTE] Boy, ain't that the truth ? How about the head scratcher : buy a BF Princeton Reverb for $1,250 or choice of several boutique versions with a 12" + options for the same money .
     
  20. gillman royce

    gillman royce Member

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    Again though, 70s production guitars have increased in value dramatically over the last ten years and it's primarily Xrs rather than boomers driving the market for them, so it's unlikely a mass boomer sell off - if it comes - is going to depress 70s Gibson and Fender prices by a huge margin. Mediocre is subjective - a lot of us that like 70s guitars got into them when we were teenagers in the 90s because they were dirt cheap because the generation above us seemed to hate them so much, so we bought them, cut our teeth on them and now look back fondly on them.[/QUOTE] Depends on the brand & model
     

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