What`s the latest on the up and down 50`s LPjr market ?

Discussion in 'Guitars in General' started by WahmBoomAh, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. WahmBoomAh

    WahmBoomAh World Crass Guitarist Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,423
    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Location:
    New York
    HI experts .... Well , I might make a complicated trade for an all original 59 lp jr ...it`s incredible ...,! WOW~!
    Market wise I know these suckers shot up the past few years but i`ve seen several that moved slow at much less than your neigborhood vintage dealer .
    Basically , it`s all over the park ... between 8k and 18k !

    Anyone with enough experience to risk spotting a trend ?

    Might I get in over my head and regret it ?.. i`d probably be forced to sell it after reality sets in . I`ll post pics soon .... thanks , Paul
     
  2. Timmo

    Timmo Member

    Messages:
    3,557
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2004
    Wait another 6 months.........you can thank me later.

    :BEER
     
  3. cmatthes

    cmatthes Member

    Messages:
    3,997
    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2003
    Location:
    DC Metro 'Burbs
  4. WahmBoomAh

    WahmBoomAh World Crass Guitarist Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,423
    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Location:
    New York
    hmmm. I believe you ...just that this particular opportunity won`t be around in 6 months ..if I get in cheap enough ,,I`ll be crazy not to land this great a guitar .
    I do catch your drift ....things may be turning around finally on the boom on these
    oh .,,,,pics

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  5. treeofpain

    treeofpain Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    6,409
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2007
    Location:
    Columbia, SC
    That's a very faded example in average condition. Probably the least desireable (and least expensive) of the original 50's Juniors, other than modded/repaired/refinished examples.

    I have seen guitars like this sell in the $6k range recently. It was closer to $8k a year or so ago, but the market has really softened up on Juniors, except for really pristine collector examples.

    These are consistently great guitars, and they have ridden the 50's Les Paul wave. The question is where they will go from here. I don't think original examples, even faded ones in average condition like this one, are going to go much lower. They will probably creep back up when the economy gets out of the current funk.
     
  6. WahmBoomAh

    WahmBoomAh World Crass Guitarist Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,423
    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Location:
    New York
    Wow ! Quite a fluctuation ...These seem to be really "adjusting" to the market moreso than other vintage guitars ..I guess they had to top out somewhere , Thanks so much for the info ....paul
     
  7. tonedaddy

    tonedaddy Member

    Messages:
    11,334
    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Location:
    I am here as you are here as you are me and we are
    +1
    Specials, too. And your right, as always, the player grade instruments are dropping the farthest.

    TV Yellow singlecut Specials have really dropped. They seemed to be leading the market up to the mid $20K range at their peak. I've seen some 40-50% off that over the last few months.
     
  8. treeofpain

    treeofpain Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    6,409
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2007
    Location:
    Columbia, SC
    Don't get me wrong. I have owned 7 or 8 50's Juniors. They are great guitars. But they were designed as a 1 pickup beginner guitar, and when they start fetching this sort of money, a lot of guys call "time out".
     
  9. surfshack

    surfshack Member

    Messages:
    1,946
    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2006
    i don't know the numbers of how many were made thru the late '50's and early '60's, but you do see quite a few for sale at any time.
     
  10. treeofpain

    treeofpain Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    6,409
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2007
    Location:
    Columbia, SC
    Yes, the sheer number of Juniors manufactured compared to Specials, Standard, and Customs must come into play regarding market price. Great point, surfshack.
     
  11. WahmBoomAh

    WahmBoomAh World Crass Guitarist Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,423
    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Location:
    New York
    The dealers are still posting higher numbers than we`re talking about here ....don`t know if that`s realistic on their part
    Oh ,, did I mention this guitars rings and sings and stings....what to do ??
     
  12. The Golden Boy

    The Golden Boy Member

    Messages:
    19,550
    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2005
    Location:
    upyerasskickinfootballs
    I called "time out" when they hit $1k.

    When you go around seeing $400 "players" for years and then find people selling THOSE guitar for 6-7-8-900... The game was too much for me.
     
  13. brad347

    brad347 Member

    Messages:
    4,813
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2006
    Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
    the whole vintage market is softening at the "player" end and will continue to do so, I think.

    I've seen 'molested' pre-CBS strats being bid up to only like $4k on eBay lately. Even good "refin" ones are lower than they used to be and falling...

    Hell, a rare '57 strat all original original finish in great shape with factory gold hardware didn't even get over $30k just yesterday. It seems like a few years ago that guitar would've gone for much much more.

    Have patience. The economy is going into recession and when that happens it's a buyer's market in everything.

    "player" guitars will one day be affordable by players again, or at least close to it. Soon enough only all-original examples will be "collectable."

    And it really is about a collecting mentality like stamps or baseball cards. If it weren't, only the good-sounding ones would be valuable. Since the value has nothing to do with sound, they are just collectables like any other and the market always settles down on collectables after the initial fad.
     
  14. treeofpain

    treeofpain Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    6,409
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2007
    Location:
    Columbia, SC
    I don't think we will see 50's Juniors back down to $1k. They are pretty iconic, and they are consistently great instruments.

    I think the strats are a little softer on eBay because they are so easy to fake. That's a lot of cake for what could be a bogus guitar. The Gibsons are a lot more challeging to fake well.
     
  15. brad347

    brad347 Member

    Messages:
    4,813
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2006
    Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
    I don't think we'll see juniors back down to $1k either.

    The typical "settling" value for most collectables is 3-5 times the original price, adjusted for inflation, for the best examples.

    Anyone know what a Junior cost brand-new in 1959? I know a sunburst Standard cost I think $250 in 1959, with case.

    So let's just take a stab in the dark and guess that a junior cost around $150. In today's dollars that is $1064, give or take a few cents.

    So using other collectables as a guide, a mint condition Junior, if the market was at its equilibrium point today, would be worth around $5320 on the upper end and maybe as little as $3192. Molested examples should be worth less.

    Obviously these are not the real prices right now, but I think they will get there. Of course when it happens the original figures will be slightly higher due to further inflation in the interim.

    P.S., a sunburst Standard's 'correct' value would be under $9k, but I think that's a special case and I don't think they'll ever get there due to their rarity in our lifetime. It goes beyond "collectable" status and now is fairly iconic. But it might get there eventually.
     
  16. 57special

    57special Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    4,815
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2003
    Location:
    MN
    If it's a great sounding and playing guitar i would pay 6 G's for it, maybe a bit more.
     
  17. surfshack

    surfshack Member

    Messages:
    1,946
    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2006
    i noticed a price hike on them about 2 years ago.
    they went from 3 - 4K to like 6K all of a sudden.
    i think they might go back down to like 4K , for people that need to sell. it depends what the person paid for it.
    if i was going to take a 2-3K hit on something i wouldn't sell , unless absolutely neccessary.
     
  18. soldano16

    soldano16 Member

    Messages:
    2,348
    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2004
    Location:
    British Columbia
    They were the last great price runup. Anything goldtop became real money so jr's were the only 50's LP game left. While Jr's are very cool guitars, not a lot of folks actually gig them.

    I'd be hugely careful buying jr's today. It's very possible we have seen the absolute high for vintage guitars with the exception of the exceptional stuff like bursts.

    The ten years of cheap money and cheap interest rates that floated the housing boom and let everyone take out equity loans on their increasing value houses so they could buy what they liked is over.

    The wild appreciation game is over for now and maybe forever.
     
  19. brad347

    brad347 Member

    Messages:
    4,813
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2006
    Location:
    Brooklyn, NY
    I agree. Most vintage guitars are not at this point exceptionally rare. Tons and tons of vintage Fenders and Juniors and such are out there. Demand is high, but supply isn't exactly tiny either on most of that stuff.

    I think it will play out like this:

    The truly rare and desirable stuff like the bursts you mentioned will maybe stay high. Rare custom color/gold hardware Fenders and that kind of stuff probably will too.

    I'd guess the rest won't exactly drop like a rock all the way to the floor, but the will decline and/or 'level off' and inflation will catch up making them comparatively more affordable again. Whether or not the bursts and stuff will stay still, keep going higher, or drop slightly remains to be seen.

    I bet refins and 'issues' guitars with routing etc will take quite a hit, making them 'players' guitars again.
     
  20. WahmBoomAh

    WahmBoomAh World Crass Guitarist Silver Supporting Member

    Messages:
    3,423
    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Location:
    New York
    I wonder what`ll happen with the `90`s R9`s that seem to go up into 5k and more with a BRW board ... I mean . I `d rather have an old wood LP jr or special if I could get it for a similar price .... Maybe the RI`s will follow this trend . Could that be why Henry made a deal with TC?
     

Share This Page