Which new guitar will appreciate most over next 25 years?

Discussion in 'The Small Company Luthiers' started by dark_rainbow, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. dark_rainbow

    dark_rainbow Senior Member

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    I have a Suhr Pro Series S-3 that just blows me away with it's tonal range, build quality and appearance. And it seems to get better every time I play it. My question, because this is the lowest price Suhr, does that mean it's appreciation potential is capped relative to the higher priced Moderns, etc? I personally like the Pro Series better and find their build quality and playability identical. It's the more traditional Strat look with the pickguard and overall simpler setup that I prefer.

    Suhrs in general I think are in the sweetspot of having enough out there so there's a good awareness of them and a solid stable of Suhr star musicians, but not so many guitars that there's an excess supply. And I think the Fender-influenced designs will age well too.

    Be interested to hear others comments on what brands and lines they think have the most appreciation value.

    Thanks
     
    RayRay likes this.
  2. edwarddavis

    edwarddavis Supporting Member

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    In all honesty , I dont think any will. Not small builder ones at least , Even the guitars that get big money now in the vintage market like fenders and Gibsons where probably going cheap in their day .Now many years ahead that there are only a few left and people want them it drove up there price . But thats because the models are still current and in a mass market .
    I own and think many of the small builder guitars are great and probably made way better than vintage ones but dont get the publicity because of the low numbers built .
    They may be collectible but to a small niche who wants hem or even knows what they are in the big guitar playing world. Most people I talk too young and old like me have no idea of the guitars I have and even though many are priced the same as you know whos they probably would go to GC and get one before buying one that is better because they are just familiar with the name . Sad but true.
    just my two cents , for what its worth
     
  3. CyberFerret

    CyberFerret Member

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    It will be a law of supply and demand. If no one wants them, then they won't be worth anything unfortunately.

    Fact is that most people acquiring and playing these are probably pushing 40 now. In 20 years, they will be in their 60's. Probably will have other priorities on their minds instead of blowing retirement savings on boutique guitars.

    Unless some young star of today is seen rocking out with a Suhr or a Grosh or something in front of the tween crowds, then you are not going to have a mass of cashed up nostalgic middle aged folks in a couple of decades that will drive up the demand.

    Just my opinion. I'm not an economist... ;)
     
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  4. Marble

    Marble Member

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    I doubt guitars like those will appreciate all that much.

    Think of limited run Custom Shop Gibsons for the most valuable. 100 or 250 run artist models.
     
  5. dark_rainbow

    dark_rainbow Senior Member

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    But they already have. Pensa-Suhrs sell for a lot more than the price as new
     
  6. edwarddavis

    edwarddavis Supporting Member

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    dont forget inflation:nono
     
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  7. Marble

    Marble Member

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    I'm saying in the grand scheme of guitars appreciating I don't think small builder guitars will appreciate nearly as much as others might, just because the market isn't there.

    Heritage makes a better 335 or Les Paul than Gibson 9 times out 10 but people don't pay the same prices for them.
     
  8. GuitarsFromMars

    GuitarsFromMars Member

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    Ha!

    If you're thinking about value in 25 years, you should not be into guitars. Collect gold coins, stamps, or mutual funds.

    Go practice.
     
  9. dark_rainbow

    dark_rainbow Senior Member

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    Heritage make nice stuff, but let's face it, w/o "Gibson" on the headstock, they'll never be truly accepted as authentic Les Pauls, etc etc.

    Suhrs, Andersons and other "super strats" I think have established a unique identity.
     
  10. Marble

    Marble Member

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    Heritages are made in the same factory in Kalamazoo where the only "real" Les Pauls were made, from 1952-1960 (or up to '63 but Heritage doesn't do SGs). Some people will say the only "real" Les Paul you can buy new is an R8, R9, etc. That's why they're legitimate.

    Hendrix, SRV, so-on and so forth didn't play Suhrs. Even if they make a better instrument than Fender, it doesn't say Fender. More importantly, regular model guitars just aren't going to become as valuable. Vintage Lesters, Strats, Teles and so on are so valuable because they were the first ones of their kind and the standard that all the other versions of those guitars are held to.

    Also consider a bigger time frame. In the early 70s, many of the vintage guitars fetching lots of money today were just over 20 years old, and didn't get much thrown at them. It was only after rockstars made them famous that people began seeking them. If someone like that played a Suhr, those guitars would gain so much value. But it won't happen, that's why I say artist signature models that aren't as common will be the high-dollar new guitars.

    I'm sure you'll make a couple thousand (perhaps) on your instrument in that time but don't expect it to be a retirement fund in the making. The chances are better if they revamp that model and start doing something different with it, and then collectors/serious Suhr fans look back and so "this year models were the best, blah blah blah". But how much can they do with it, and why would a modern small builder do anything to make their instrument worse?

    edit: Stockrock stated exactly what I was getting at in my last paragraph.
     
  11. mwhy

    mwhy Supporting Member

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    Yep, this is the correct answer.

    If you have money to collect a lot of guitars for fun, go for it.
    If a guitar plays well and sounds good, and you like it, go for it.
    If you want to invest in your musicianship, take lessons or participate in a master class by someone who's a great teacher/player.
    But don't buy a guitar as a 25-year (or even 10-year!) appreciable investment.
     
  12. Jaan

    Jaan Supporting Member

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  13. The Funk

    The Funk Member

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    Languedoc' will likely appreciate due to a very popular player, popularity of that player among guitarists, the amount of clones being made, and the relative scarcity of the real deal.


    That design will likely be a small paragraph in guitar history, but thats enough to have some collector value in the future.
     
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  14. Jazztone

    Jazztone Member

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    Early PRS Guitars have appreciated nicely. They do nothing for me but they may turn out to be the iconic guitar of their generation.
     
  15. slopeshoulder

    slopeshoulder Senior Member

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    Demographic, cultural, aesthetic, and technology shifts are going to make most of the guitars we spend $$$ on close to worthless, unless perhaps to affluent chinese or indians, maybe, but probably not. There won't be a second american century, so our cultural artifacts will not travel like they did in the 20th century to the UK and Japan for example.
    Our obsessions aside, the guitar and things made of wood are of decreasing relevance. There will probably be some value and demand for the very very best of the anti-mainstream high touch aspect of the handcrafted-luthier wooden instruments whose explosion coincided with the technology revolution and the 9/11 era, but that will be relegated to a niche, like arts and crafts design from the industrial era is today.

    I think Suhr and Collings (branded, person, shop, modern techniques and old craft and materials) may have a shot. PRS and Taylor are too ubiquitous, others are too small.

    In the future, things from our era related to media and technology will be collected.

    If you think your axe stash is your retirement, say hello to dog food in 25 years.
     
  16. NeuroLogic

    NeuroLogic Supporting Member

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    D'Angelico & D'Aquisto were "small builders" and great investments. Many of the "smalls" today are much better yet as to fabrication & sound. As to investments that is very difficult to predict. Vintage Gibsons & Fenders are way over priced for what they are inherently but, remain significant historically. How much better guitars will be made is uncertain.

    Note, the Roman Colesium was salvaged because of a lack if interest then. Times, technology & interest change.
     
  17. nocoJack

    nocoJack Member

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    I appreciate Gibsons the most... I don't see that changing over the next 25 years. I might appreciate a Suhr or two.
     
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  18. XKnight

    XKnight Member

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    Let me get my crystal ball out and I'll get back to you...

    Personally, I'd stick with Custom Shop limited run Gibson and Fender is you're worried about future value.
     
  19. clint

    clint Member

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    Sad (because there are so many smaller builders who do it better) but probably true. That's assuming anything shows any appreciation since future musicians may or may not gravitate towards guitars the way we did.
    Maybe the accordian will become cool again? :hide
     
  20. Pscheoverdrive

    Pscheoverdrive Silver Supporting Member

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    In all honesty, with all the nay-saying and 'do something else' posts...

    I think the 'new' guitar that will appreciate the most is going to be the last Les Paul Standard that featured point-to-point electronics wiring.

    Here's why:
    - Anything with a printed circuit board can always be made better by the manufacturer (new features, better components, etc). That Firebird thing, just like Line 6 amps, is going to be archaic, obsolete and worthless in say, two years? Only exception to that idea might be a TS-808, but come on, is a Line 6 ever going to be worth $$$$?

    - I don't think anybody in the future is going to be interested in a reissue as a collector's or vintage item. I'm not excited about them now... I might like to play one, but would never buy one thinking it'd be worth more in the future.

    - These boutique guitars are going to keep their value... If they cost $5K to get one new, I would not be surprised to see them continually sell for whatever tomorrow's equivalent of $5K is. However, you asked about appreciation. If you've got the last year of the non-PCB, LP Standard guitar for $2K, it WILL be worth more 25 years from now. Just keep it in the case and don't ever play it. Leave the tags on it. Throw it in a closet and forget about it. People will probably flame me for that statement... But you could just get one of those fancy Suhrs and play that instead. :p Like I said, it'll hold its value. A 'normal' LP won't if it's been well-used and shows it.

    Things that cost a lot initially generally retain their value, but I don't usually see them double and triple in value. If you've got something 'normal' that becomes special for some reason, then you'll see growth.
     

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