Discussion in 'The Small Company Luthiers' started by dark_rainbow, Jan 12, 2011.
Agreed. I have an '89.
Totally agree. I also think the market for clean, original vintage Fenders and Gibsons will remain strong probably driven by demand from cash rich Chinese and SE Asian buyers in love with all things American.
Well, since 2011 (when this thread was started), Nik Huber Orca 59's have almost doubled in price, so there's that.
I got mine in 2013 and boy, am I glad I did! I couldn't buy one new today!!!
Except: that ship has already sailed, and had sailed by the time this thread started. If you had owned one prior to Taku's murder, the street value of your guitar would have increased by roughly 500% in the immediate aftermath of that unfortunate event. They may have declined a bit in value since, though, and the major appreciation in value was most likely a one-time occurrence. If I bought one today I wouldn't expect the value to appreciate to any great degree over time. And it could even crash if the Robben Ford connection (which was rather brief in the grand scheme of things) becomes less significant to a new generation of players.
. The vintage stuff is expensive because there are so few of them .
There are thousands and thousands of guitars being built every year nowadays.
But who knows ...maybe in 75 years... anything is possible.... maybe custom small luthier built guitars will be a lost art and an old k line found in grandpa's attic will be worth a mint.
Why would a new guitar appreciate? Honestly -- on what basis would a person expect the value of a newly manufactured guitar to increase? There's already a vast volume of used guitars floating around, and makers are flooding the market every minute of every day.
I think that if Echopark goes under, his guitars could actually become somewhat collectible.
Scala guitars are neat as well but I've never seen one.
Taylor McGrath? ;^)
In the town I grew up in, there was a guy Ervin Somogyi who would build you a guitar for a few bills. They go for a lot now. In the town I settled in, there's a guy Jeff Traugott who offered to sell me a guitar for $5K, which is more than I had in my pocket at the time so I had to say no thanks. Now it would be worth five times that. So it can happen. Come to think of it, there was this kind of weird guy Alex Dumble, who would have built me an amp for $2K, but I thought Mesas were cooler. Oh well...
My Santa Cruz 000 is worth more now than I bought it for. Such a great guitar. I ordered Artisan Master #6 from Ron Thorn, partially because it was a better value than a PRS Private stock but mostly because I liked it. I can only hope... Not that I really care that much since I'll never sell it. I enjoy it for what it is, not the price it might command.
Buy something right before someone famous starts playing that brand. James Taylor is responsible for Olson more than doubling in price.
While not a direct answer to the OP's question I thought that we might get some insight by going "back to the future" and asking what guitar purchased new 25 years ago (in 1994) has shown the most appreciation. Off the top of my head I cannot think of a guitar that really stands out but I am sure everyone will have some suggestions.
I've got a small collection of 'odds and ends' guitars - some Gibson, one '68 Fender, Trussart, Danocaster, an old Ibanez, a 20th Century Martin of no special value.
I'm not expecting any of them to make a great leap in value, but I didn't buy them as investments. I take them out to gigs and play them, and if suddenly one of them is worth more than the original price, so be it. Doesn't mean I'll try to cash in and make money, because then I wouldn't have one of my fave guitars any more.
Why speculate? Just plug 'em in and play 'em, I say.
If you are concerned about preserving your investment, cut your losses instead and sell your guitars now, because in 25 years nobody will care about them.
I think that the vast majority of people in this community understand that guitars are a very risky investment. But I also think that we understand that there is significant value in owning and playing a guitar we love, even if it is only for a certain period of time. Trying to predict how the dollar value of a guitar evolves over time is pretty much like trying to predict the future value of the shares of a single company in the stock market. That probably implies that if one is solely motivated to protect an investment in guitars then the best way is to own the equivalent of a diverse portfolio.
Languedoc has been mentioned. My guess is that Ken Parker’s Archtops will also appreciate, as will some of the other fine Archtop builders- perhaps Benedetto, who literally wrote the book on modern Archtop design.
Rarity is obviously a requirement and that rules out pretty much every new production guitar out there. Even if a model was intended to be a (very) limited edition, the company will find a way to make more of them if they see a demand (Gibson Dave Grohl anyone?)
I agree that Languedoc may be the best bet for a guitar that is investment-grade. You have a very expensive and hard to obtain guitar that by all accounts is very high-quality and is essentially the only guitar used by a huge rock star with a cult-like following.
IMO nothing is going to appreciate beyond maybe 1% or 2% in the next 30 years. We are in a massive glut of undistinguiable guitars. Afor the TGPers saying that any guitar is an investment - Never gonna happen again.
Used Guitars, amps, pedals etc...are in a serious sales decline - which IMO is only going to get worse as the whole world becomes over saturated with new guitars. With iconic companies like Fender putting out every conceivable permutation of their entire line - the single owner guitar companies are not going to stand out with their own variation of a Fender or Gibson. There is nothing 'rare' about a Stratocaster Variation. Or a Les Paul variation or any variation.
The Only investment grade guitars are the classics such as the LP Sunburst - Gibson made around 1,500 sunburst Les Pauls between 1958 and 1960, but today, only 3,500 survive. So there's potential to make some money with forgeries. But the true Sunburst are out of the purvey of 95% of the guitar world - so IMO they aren't investments anymore. The economic stratosphere those guitar live in makes them practically meaningless to the average joe.
This is an interesting thread, and it is informative to hear about some makers I had never heard about before.
I have a theory that more metal centric brands will go up in value in 25 yrs. Today's sweaty hesher at the Meshuggah concert is tomorrows rich stockbroker. I don't necessarily mean off the shelf stuff like Ibanez (but who knows with their high end?), but more brands like Blackmachine, Daemoness, Strandberg, etc.
I think early Frank Brothers Guitar Company guitars will only get better and more valuable with age. See here. But it's probably not wise the view new guitars as investments. (And I doubt the wisdom of buying vintage guitars as investments either. I think as the Boomers get older and older and start selling their collections, the value of vintage Gibsons and Fenders is going to fall dramatically.)